4th Inning- At least it was better than the 3rd.
The Tigers played a truly terrible stretch of baseball over the last 2 months. After a decent start and an awe-inspiring 2nd Inning the 3rd was a disaster. The 4th was looking to be as bad as the 3rd but the Boys turned it around at the end and made it a .500 stretch of 9-9. Fortunately for Detroit the rest of the AL Central has struggled worse than they have and so, despite a strong run from KC, the Tigers were still in 1st Place by 2 ½ games when it was all said and done.
The inning started with Toronto on June 4 as the Blue Jays completed a sweep of Detroit in Detroit. In that series the Tigers were outscored 20-8 overall. Then the Red Sox came to town and things seemed a little better. The Tiges took 2 of 3, scoring 17 along the way, but that was the last taste of decent baseball for a while as the White Sox took 3 of 4 and the Royals took 3 of 4 with a series win over the Twins sandwiched in between. Finally the Tigers left town on a 9 game road trip, starting in Cleveland, and things started to look much better. Cleveland is where the Horrible Times started (May 19) and it appears that Cleveland is where the Horrible Times ended. The Tigers swept the Indians to finish out the 4th Inning and salvage a 9-9 record. But breaking down the numbers shows that it was still a rough patch of baseball.
The Lineup scored 85 runs, a big improvement over the previous 18 games. They actually had the highest team BA of the year so far in these 18 games, hitting at a .293 rate with a significant surge in power (5 triples and 23 homeruns) for an OPS (Onbase-Plus-Slugging) per centage of .883, by far the best of the season. Victor Martinez, JD Martinez and Cabrera continue to hit well and far. The new SS Suarez has brought some pop with him from Toledo. Others are still struggling (Hunter) but the runs are coming in.
The Starters improved a little. They lasted deeper into games during this inning (114 2/3 IP) and allowed fewer hits and fewer walks (WHIP dropped from 1.46 to 1.33). But their strikeout rate also dropped and their homerun rate basically stayed the same. This all combined into a record of 7-8 for the Inning. That took some pressure off of the Bullpen, but we frankly expect more out of a Rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello and Smyly. 2 Cy Young winners and a 3rd runner up to the CY should give us more than what we are seeing. In these 18 games Verlander pitched 25 2/3 innings. He allowed 33 hits, 21 earned runs and 11 walks. His ERA for that period was a whopping 7.36! He allowed 5 home runs while striking out only 20. Scherzer was not that much better. He pitched the same number of innings but allowed “only” 30 hits and 15 earned runs. During this time he threw his very first complete game (a shutout of the White Sox, which was great to see!) His ERA was only 5.26! Sanchez truly pitched well in his 19 1/3 innings allowing only 15 hits and 6 earned runs. Smyly was the Ace of the Inning- 19 IP with only 4 earned runs. The trend at the end of the Inning is solid though. All 4 pitchers had solid start of less than 2 runs allowed, a huge improvement.
The Bullpen had to step up again with the Starters still struggling. This did not happen. Although the BP was called upon for fewer IP during the 4th, they allowed more hits. This pushed their WHIP up to 1.72 and their collective ERA up to 5.47. On the positive side the K’s are coming (over 1 per inning) and the walk rate improved over the previous 18 games, but not by much. Joe Nathan continued to struggle, but with flashes of genius mixed in to keep everyone hopeful. Phil Coke was the same way. Hardy was brought up from Toledo and has done well so far. Smith has not done well. With this BP it is very hard to tell if any lead is safe, which is how we end up with improved Team batting numbers and only marginal improvements in the Win/Loss record.
Defense has not helped anyone (except opposing teams). In the 4th Inning the Tigers committed 16 errors. All that does is extend innings and allow rallies. Errors accounted for 7 runs over those 18 games and there is no sign of improvement. If there were improvement in this area then I believe the pitching would improve also (fewer pitches per inning, fewer base runners, fewer runs).
It appears that the Horrible Times are over. Although the record was only 9-9 for this Inning the team finished strong with a 4 game winning streak. During the last 5 games the Rotation was as solid as you can ask for and the BP only freaked us out times. When the 18th game was finished the Tigers were still in 1st Place and their lead was only ½ game shorter than when it started. The runs are coming (4.7/ game). If the pitching syncs up then there is much to be excited about. If JV and Max don’t figure out what is wrong then this could be a much more intense summer than many of us expected and no sure thing for winning the AL Central. I remain optimistic though, based on what the last week has shown us.
Friday, June 27, 2014
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
The 3rd Inning (games 36 to 54): A Regression to the Mean
I guess that we knew it couldn’t last forever. During the 2nd inning the Tigers played incredible baseball. They won 14 of 18 games. Their starters were 12-2. The hit with a team BA of .288 and a OPS of .778. They played out of their minds and we all knew it wasn’t sustainable, they had to come back to earth. Would that be a gentle, soft landing or a plummet to the ground?
The last 18 games have corrected any ideas we may have had that this was the 1984 Tigers reincarnated. They won only 7 of the 18 games (.389). This was an almost complete team collapse. Starting pitching was not good. Relief pitching was not good. Team batting was not good. Fielding was not good. This whole Inning was not good.
Starting pitchers had an ERA of 4.74. That is almost 2 runs higher than the previous 18 games. They gave up 13 HR in this stretch (they had given up only 14 in the previous 36 games!). The sudden largesse for HR was combined with more walks and hits per inning (up to 1.46 from 1.09) to balloon the Earned Runs to 59 over these 18 games. Again, the previous 36 games allowed only 68 ER total. The bottom line for the Starters was a record of 6 and 7.
The Bullpen was not able to pick up the slack for the Starters. Although the ‘Pen was better in the 3rd Inning that it was in the 1st Inning (when they sucked) it was certainly worse than during the magical 2nd Inning when they dominated. The Bullpen’s ERA rose to 4.56. Their WHIP came up to 1.37 and their Homeruns/ 9 jumped to 1.01 (from 0.53). The strikeout rate dipped a little (down to 8.10 per 9 IP) but their walk rate jumped to 3.71. That combination led to a 1 and 4 record for the ‘Pen. You simply cannot walk that many batters as a relief corps. And then to give up twice as many HR (6 compared to 3)? Just a horrible combination.
The fielding had been improving as the year went on. The error rate was dropping (0.8 to 0.4) but this has also reversed. The 3rd Inning saw 11 errors charged against the Tigers (0.6 per game).
The bats were inconsistent. Cabrera, Victor and Kinsler are just hitting like crazy. Others have spurts but fade away. This has dropped the number of runs from 101 (5.6/game) to a mere 67 (3.7/ game) in this Inning. They actually hit more HR and more doubles. They also took more walks. But the strikeouts hurt them (136 Ks this Inning or 0.22/ AB, up from 0.19). The team had hard time putting together strings of hits to generate runs. In 9 of these games they scored 3 runs or less. They were shutout in 2 of those and scored only 1 in two more.
So we watched a team that couldn’t prevent runs and also couldn’t score runs. They started the Inning by completing a sweep of the Red Sox in Boston and then got swept by Cleveland. The Rangers had their way with the Tigers and then Detroit earned a split of a four game series with a very good Oakland A’s team. Seattle took 2 of 3 and the Blue Jays turned a pitchers’ duel into a HR Derby as the Bullpen imploded to finish the 18th game.
On the positive side, the Starters seem to be sorting themselves out. Sanchez has pitched brilliantly in his last two games since returning from the DL. Verlander looked much better in his last start. Porcello looked very solid in 2 of his 3 starts this Inning. Scherzer has not gotten his groove back yet. Smyly isn’t inspiring confidence in me right now. Chamberlain is solid. Alburqueque has done well. Coke appears to be used only when it's impossible to lose a game.
Most importantly, in spite of a truly painful stretch of baseball, the Tigers are still in 1st place (with a 4 game lead). Although they lost more games than they won, they only gave up 2.5 games of their lead. They have most of the next 18 games at home (11 of the 18) and they normally play better at home. This is still an excellent team and I’m excited to see them correct (again).
Friday, May 16, 2014
36 games into 2014 and what do we have to show for it?
The Tigers have played 36 games. That means that they have played 2 “Innings” of baseball this year.*
That is 3 to 6 games fewer than their division rivals (due to weather and scheduled off days earlier in the season) but the season will work itself out over time. The important question is how have they played those 36 games?
Offense- Detroit has scored 176 runs (4.9 per game). That is some great baseball. And they are improving as the year develops. In the first 18 games they had 160 hits. In the next 18 games that became 179 hits. And more of those hits have gone for extra bases. The percentage of singles has dropped and the percentage doubles and homeruns has increased. Those 4.9 runs per game are good enough for 5th in MLB so far this year.
Once they get on base they are not just waiting to be hit around the base paths. The Tigers are 2nd in MLB in stolen bases. Let me repeat that, because you probably ignored it as gibberish, the Tigers are 2nd in stolen bases. They have 35. Last year they also had 35, for the entire season. Asmus’ emphasis on running seems to be paying off more often than not. It forces the other team to watch runners more closely and the Tigers are also a threat to take an extra base (single into a double or go from 1st to 3rd ) in ways that can cause the opposing defense to make errors and extend innings.
Pitching/ Defense- When your starting rotation has Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez as your top 3 you can expect to have a good year. Fister was traded for a starter (Ray) and a reliever (Krol) so Porcello had to improve his game and Smyly had to prove that he could start games. The first 18 games of the season had the entire pitching staff figuring itself out. The Starters were 6 and 6 with and ERA of 2.96 while pitching 109 1/3 innings. This is hardly a bad stretch, but it probably isn’t going to get you to the World Series. Ahh, but the next 18 games showed more of their mettle.
Over the last 18 games the Starters are 12 and 2 with an ERA of 2.62 over 110 innings. They have allowed 12 fewer hits over that time. Sanchez went to the DL with a nasty blister on his right hand. Ray was called up to take his place. Ray is 1-0 in his 2 starts with an ERA of 0.79 (1 earned run in 11 1/3 IP). He is allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning (0.97 WHIP) and the only Starter with a lower walk-rate is… Rick Porcello! Porcello has been amazing to start the season. He is the first man on the Rotation to earn 6 wins (6-1). His walk-rate is 1.21 per inning. He is getting outs, over and over again. He is going deep into the games he starts (averaging 6 1/3 IP). His ERA is only 3.22 and that is only good enough to be 5th best of the Starters! Let that sink in a moment. Porcello has an ERA of 3.22 and he is the 5th best on the team for that stat. It’s a Dream Rotation so far this year.
The Bullpen was a concern going into the season. It became more of a concern once Rondon went down with a season ending injury. As with the Starters, the Pen had to sort itself out as the Season got underway. The first 18 games were rough. In 53 IP they gave up 58 hits and 33 runs for an ERA of 5.61. A big part of that was giving up 9 homeruns in those 53 IP (1.53 HR/9). But things have settled down in the last 18 games. They have pitched 51 innings and given up only 19 earned runs. That HR/9 number has dropped to 0.53 (only 3 HR in those 18 games). They are striking out almost 1 more batter per inning than they did before also and gave up 13 fewer hits. Nathan has proven to be a solid closer. Reed has pitched well and so has Krol. The only one that can’t seem to pull it together is Coke. In a few weeks the recently signed Hanrahan will come off of the DL and someone will be removed. He is projected to be the set up man (a role the Alburquerque has been handling so far).
Defensively they are about the same as the 2013 team over all. So far the team has committed 22 errors (0.6 per game). The first 18 games saw 14 of those, so there has been quite an improvement in the last 18. The Tigers are ranked 4th of AL teams in errors and 7th in Fielding % (baseball-reference.com) so far this year. They are ranked 5th in Double Plays turned (with 89 so far). Fangraphs has them ranked 10th with a UZR/150 of -3.0 (which is slightly below average).
With great Starting pitching and decent a decent Bullpen and decent defense the Tigers have allowed only 131 runs (3.64/ game). They have outscored their opponents by 1.25 runs per game on average. In the last 18 games that equals 46 runs. They have had 11 games decided by only 1 run and are 7-4 in those games. That is living on the edge and they won’t likely keep up a .636 pace in such tight games. They are 2-1 in extra innings, also not likely to be sustainable.
Yet they have scored 6+ runs in 15 of their 36 games and only allowed 5+ runs in 12 of their games (and they won 6 of those 12). This team scores runs! It’s very exciting baseball. They are playing very well against their AL Central opponents (12-6). In fact they are playing well against all AL teams (22-9). This bodes well for the Season. There have been other years when the Tigers would crush NL teams and those victories made the difference for the Playoffs. I don’t see that being necessary this year. This team can take care of it’s own division and the rest of the AL with no problems so far. They just finished sweeping the AL East leading Orioles in Baltimore for crying out loud.
After 2 full innings of baseball, it’s a good year to be a Tigers’ fan.
* The MLB Season is 162 games long. 162/9 = 18. So each 18 games = 1 “inning” of the Season.
That is 3 to 6 games fewer than their division rivals (due to weather and scheduled off days earlier in the season) but the season will work itself out over time. The important question is how have they played those 36 games?
Offense- Detroit has scored 176 runs (4.9 per game). That is some great baseball. And they are improving as the year develops. In the first 18 games they had 160 hits. In the next 18 games that became 179 hits. And more of those hits have gone for extra bases. The percentage of singles has dropped and the percentage doubles and homeruns has increased. Those 4.9 runs per game are good enough for 5th in MLB so far this year.
Once they get on base they are not just waiting to be hit around the base paths. The Tigers are 2nd in MLB in stolen bases. Let me repeat that, because you probably ignored it as gibberish, the Tigers are 2nd in stolen bases. They have 35. Last year they also had 35, for the entire season. Asmus’ emphasis on running seems to be paying off more often than not. It forces the other team to watch runners more closely and the Tigers are also a threat to take an extra base (single into a double or go from 1st to 3rd ) in ways that can cause the opposing defense to make errors and extend innings.
Pitching/ Defense- When your starting rotation has Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez as your top 3 you can expect to have a good year. Fister was traded for a starter (Ray) and a reliever (Krol) so Porcello had to improve his game and Smyly had to prove that he could start games. The first 18 games of the season had the entire pitching staff figuring itself out. The Starters were 6 and 6 with and ERA of 2.96 while pitching 109 1/3 innings. This is hardly a bad stretch, but it probably isn’t going to get you to the World Series. Ahh, but the next 18 games showed more of their mettle.
Over the last 18 games the Starters are 12 and 2 with an ERA of 2.62 over 110 innings. They have allowed 12 fewer hits over that time. Sanchez went to the DL with a nasty blister on his right hand. Ray was called up to take his place. Ray is 1-0 in his 2 starts with an ERA of 0.79 (1 earned run in 11 1/3 IP). He is allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning (0.97 WHIP) and the only Starter with a lower walk-rate is… Rick Porcello! Porcello has been amazing to start the season. He is the first man on the Rotation to earn 6 wins (6-1). His walk-rate is 1.21 per inning. He is getting outs, over and over again. He is going deep into the games he starts (averaging 6 1/3 IP). His ERA is only 3.22 and that is only good enough to be 5th best of the Starters! Let that sink in a moment. Porcello has an ERA of 3.22 and he is the 5th best on the team for that stat. It’s a Dream Rotation so far this year.
The Bullpen was a concern going into the season. It became more of a concern once Rondon went down with a season ending injury. As with the Starters, the Pen had to sort itself out as the Season got underway. The first 18 games were rough. In 53 IP they gave up 58 hits and 33 runs for an ERA of 5.61. A big part of that was giving up 9 homeruns in those 53 IP (1.53 HR/9). But things have settled down in the last 18 games. They have pitched 51 innings and given up only 19 earned runs. That HR/9 number has dropped to 0.53 (only 3 HR in those 18 games). They are striking out almost 1 more batter per inning than they did before also and gave up 13 fewer hits. Nathan has proven to be a solid closer. Reed has pitched well and so has Krol. The only one that can’t seem to pull it together is Coke. In a few weeks the recently signed Hanrahan will come off of the DL and someone will be removed. He is projected to be the set up man (a role the Alburquerque has been handling so far).
Defensively they are about the same as the 2013 team over all. So far the team has committed 22 errors (0.6 per game). The first 18 games saw 14 of those, so there has been quite an improvement in the last 18. The Tigers are ranked 4th of AL teams in errors and 7th in Fielding % (baseball-reference.com) so far this year. They are ranked 5th in Double Plays turned (with 89 so far). Fangraphs has them ranked 10th with a UZR/150 of -3.0 (which is slightly below average).
With great Starting pitching and decent a decent Bullpen and decent defense the Tigers have allowed only 131 runs (3.64/ game). They have outscored their opponents by 1.25 runs per game on average. In the last 18 games that equals 46 runs. They have had 11 games decided by only 1 run and are 7-4 in those games. That is living on the edge and they won’t likely keep up a .636 pace in such tight games. They are 2-1 in extra innings, also not likely to be sustainable.
Yet they have scored 6+ runs in 15 of their 36 games and only allowed 5+ runs in 12 of their games (and they won 6 of those 12). This team scores runs! It’s very exciting baseball. They are playing very well against their AL Central opponents (12-6). In fact they are playing well against all AL teams (22-9). This bodes well for the Season. There have been other years when the Tigers would crush NL teams and those victories made the difference for the Playoffs. I don’t see that being necessary this year. This team can take care of it’s own division and the rest of the AL with no problems so far. They just finished sweeping the AL East leading Orioles in Baltimore for crying out loud.
After 2 full innings of baseball, it’s a good year to be a Tigers’ fan.
* The MLB Season is 162 games long. 162/9 = 18. So each 18 games = 1 “inning” of the Season.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Why I'm not worried about .500 on May 14...
The Tigers have played 34 games (1/5 of the season). They are wrapping up a long (9 game) road trip out west with 2 more games in Chicago. They are 1 game behind the suprisingly first place Indians.
You know what? I could have simply copied and pasted that paragraph from 2011. Each statement is almost exactly true from last year (Detroit was 3 1/2 games behind the "surprising Indians" then. How did 2011 work out? Pretty well (in my humble opinion). The Tigers were 2 games away from the World Series.
Let's take a look at the team we have today versus the team we had 12 months ago. Verlander, Fister, Porcello, Scherzer, Smyly versus Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Penny and Coke. Between you and me, gentle reader, I'll take this year's rotation.
For position players we have Jackson, Dirks, Cabrerra, Fielder, Young, Avila, Boesch, Peralta and Raburn. Last year it was Jackson, Rhymes, Ordonez, Cabrera, Martinez, Raburn, Inge and Avila. Again, I'd rather have the 2012 line up on my side than the 2011 version. Are they producing right now? No, they aren't. Is the sky falling down around us in burning heaps of molten sky? No, it isn't. In fact the Tigers are at .500 and 1 game out of first place. In spite of an OPS of .700 (the League OPS is .725) they are at a .500 record. In spite of only scoring 4.18 runs/ game they are at a .500 record.
Are the Indians better than last year's version? No, I don't believe so. How about the White Sox? No, I still don't think so. The Twins threw in the towel for 2012. The Royals are getting better, but I don't see them taking the AL Central Division.
In fact, let's look at who the Tigers have played so far this season. Boston, Tampa, CWS, KC, Texas, Seattle, Yankees and Oakland. Out of those 8 teams, 3 were in the playoffs last year (along with the Tigers) and another would have been if they hadn't imploded at the end. Not an easy first month of the year. For the rest of May they face the White Sox, Twins, Pirate, Indians and Red Sox. Not to take anything from those teams, but the rest of the month should be easier on Detroit than the first half was.
So, take heart. It's a long season, and as we learned last year, lots of great baseball can be played in the remaining 80% of the season. Don't jump off of the Bandwagon just yet.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Pitchers, Catchers and Bloggers Report
Today is day that pitchers and catchers report. It is also the day that part time bloggers report.
Like many players, I am not reporting in the best shape of my life (that distinction apparently goes to Miguel Cabrera). Maybe I'm more like Joaquin Benoit (at least according to Kurt) and kind of pudgy (not to be confused with Pudgy, not that any of you would do that).
Of course expectations are sky high going into 2012. The Tigers have both Miguel Cabrera AND Prince Fielder. They have Justin Verlander. They have Jim Leyland. For that matter they have Mike Illitch and he wants to win. He wants the whole enchilada and he wants it this year. I heartily concur with that focus. These guys are in their prime. The supporting cast is quite good (Boesch, Young, Jackson, Fister).
There are questions which remain. Can Rick Porcello realize the potential everyone sees in him? Can Max Scherzer put it together this year? Can we find a 2nd baseman who will do the job? Who will pitch on the days that the starters don't make it out of the 4th or 5th inning? Can Valverde come close to repeating last year's excellence? Who will be the 5th starter? (Does it matter?)
We can explore all of this as it unfolds. I think this is going to be an amazing year. Yet, I remember the disaster of 2008. I remember thinking about getting World Series tickets at Opening Day (yes, I really did). That didn't work out so well did it?
The difference between 2008 and 2012 is pitching. This year the Tigers have it. That year they didn't.
Either way let's hang on for the ride and enjoy our summer. It starts tomorrow with the first work outs of the year!
Like many players, I am not reporting in the best shape of my life (that distinction apparently goes to Miguel Cabrera). Maybe I'm more like Joaquin Benoit (at least according to Kurt) and kind of pudgy (not to be confused with Pudgy, not that any of you would do that).
Of course expectations are sky high going into 2012. The Tigers have both Miguel Cabrera AND Prince Fielder. They have Justin Verlander. They have Jim Leyland. For that matter they have Mike Illitch and he wants to win. He wants the whole enchilada and he wants it this year. I heartily concur with that focus. These guys are in their prime. The supporting cast is quite good (Boesch, Young, Jackson, Fister).
There are questions which remain. Can Rick Porcello realize the potential everyone sees in him? Can Max Scherzer put it together this year? Can we find a 2nd baseman who will do the job? Who will pitch on the days that the starters don't make it out of the 4th or 5th inning? Can Valverde come close to repeating last year's excellence? Who will be the 5th starter? (Does it matter?)
We can explore all of this as it unfolds. I think this is going to be an amazing year. Yet, I remember the disaster of 2008. I remember thinking about getting World Series tickets at Opening Day (yes, I really did). That didn't work out so well did it?
The difference between 2008 and 2012 is pitching. This year the Tigers have it. That year they didn't.
Either way let's hang on for the ride and enjoy our summer. It starts tomorrow with the first work outs of the year!
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
After 2 innings of play the Tigers are treading water…
Don’t get me wrong. The trends are very good right now, but the numbers don’t lie either. After the first 18 games (one “inning”) the Tigers were 4.5 games back in 3rd place. After the next 18 games (2 innings) the Tigers are 5.5 games back in 3rd place.
Yet, there are indications that what was planted in the spring is about to give fruit as summer approaches. Let’s look at some key numbers.
• 10-8 -The Tigers played .556 ball for this inning.
• 12 –The number of errors the Tigers committed this inning.
• 10-4 –The Starters record this inning with a WHIP of 1.11
• 3 –The number of walks taken by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 7.8 –The number of strikeouts by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 4.78 –Runs scored per game this inning (up from 4.22 last inning).
• 3.89 –Runs allowed per game this inning (down from 5.17 last inning).
Let’s look at those last two numbers again. The batters have found some mojo, especially in the last week. For the Inning they have hit for a better average (.266 vs. .244) and slightly more power (OPS of .731 vs .707). This has translated to a more RBI, 16 more for this Inning (or almost .9 runs per game). See how easy this is? If you put more runners on you can score more runs! Of course the infamous “Tigers threaten, but do not score” is still heard throughout the land all too often.
But averaging 4.8 runs per game will not win all that many games (there is a 7 game losing streak in the middle of this Inning to prove that). So how do you win more games? Look at the last number on the list- 3.89 runs per game. While the batters had their struggles, the pitchers were often dominating games, especially the starters. The Starters allowed only 40 earned runs in 18 games. That is only 2.2 per game. They also pitched 120 1/3 innings. That is 6 2/3 innings per start. In short, the Tigers are dominating opposing lineups. There were 5 games this Inning where 0 earned runs were allowed by the starter. 0! In almost 30% of the games! There were only 2 games where 5 or more runs were allowed. It isn’t only Verlander either, they all did it at least once.
One number which stands out from the Starters’ line is walks per 9 innings (BB/9). For the first 18 games it was 4.0 and for the last 18 games it has dropped to 2.4. That is 1 1/2 fewer baserunners with chances to score. It’s a minimum of 8 few pitches that have to be thrown. It’s just better baseball.
So what changed? I’m just a compiler of data, I can’t tell you what happened inside of people’s heads. I can look at these numbers and say that the starting pitching was much better in Inning 2 than it was in Inning 1. I can say that the lineup was on base more often and that allowed for more RBI. Beyond that, I can tell you that it is more fun to watch your team win than it is to watch them lose. The Tigers had bookend on this Inning of winning streaks and a nasty losing streak of 7 games in the middle. But after 36 games they are still very much in the race and chasing the suddenly amazing Indians. It looks to be a good summer!
Yet, there are indications that what was planted in the spring is about to give fruit as summer approaches. Let’s look at some key numbers.
• 10-8 -The Tigers played .556 ball for this inning.
• 12 –The number of errors the Tigers committed this inning.
• 10-4 –The Starters record this inning with a WHIP of 1.11
• 3 –The number of walks taken by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 7.8 –The number of strikeouts by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 4.78 –Runs scored per game this inning (up from 4.22 last inning).
• 3.89 –Runs allowed per game this inning (down from 5.17 last inning).
Let’s look at those last two numbers again. The batters have found some mojo, especially in the last week. For the Inning they have hit for a better average (.266 vs. .244) and slightly more power (OPS of .731 vs .707). This has translated to a more RBI, 16 more for this Inning (or almost .9 runs per game). See how easy this is? If you put more runners on you can score more runs! Of course the infamous “Tigers threaten, but do not score” is still heard throughout the land all too often.
But averaging 4.8 runs per game will not win all that many games (there is a 7 game losing streak in the middle of this Inning to prove that). So how do you win more games? Look at the last number on the list- 3.89 runs per game. While the batters had their struggles, the pitchers were often dominating games, especially the starters. The Starters allowed only 40 earned runs in 18 games. That is only 2.2 per game. They also pitched 120 1/3 innings. That is 6 2/3 innings per start. In short, the Tigers are dominating opposing lineups. There were 5 games this Inning where 0 earned runs were allowed by the starter. 0! In almost 30% of the games! There were only 2 games where 5 or more runs were allowed. It isn’t only Verlander either, they all did it at least once.
One number which stands out from the Starters’ line is walks per 9 innings (BB/9). For the first 18 games it was 4.0 and for the last 18 games it has dropped to 2.4. That is 1 1/2 fewer baserunners with chances to score. It’s a minimum of 8 few pitches that have to be thrown. It’s just better baseball.
So what changed? I’m just a compiler of data, I can’t tell you what happened inside of people’s heads. I can look at these numbers and say that the starting pitching was much better in Inning 2 than it was in Inning 1. I can say that the lineup was on base more often and that allowed for more RBI. Beyond that, I can tell you that it is more fun to watch your team win than it is to watch them lose. The Tigers had bookend on this Inning of winning streaks and a nasty losing streak of 7 games in the middle. But after 36 games they are still very much in the race and chasing the suddenly amazing Indians. It looks to be a good summer!
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The first ½ inning is done…
The Tigers have played 9 games. The Regular Season is 162 games. This can be broken down into 9 “innings” of 18 games each (162/9 = 18). So 9 games = ½ inning. If I can remember where I first saw this laid out for me I’ll link to it because I can’t come up with stuff like this on my own.
• They are 3-6. So far they have won one game of each series (Yankees, Orioles and Royals).
• The Starters are 3-4 with an ERA of 6.49 and a WHIP of 1.60
• The Bullpen has 2 losses against it with an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.36
• The Tigers have committed 9 errors in 9 games.
• The Tigers have walked 25 times (2.8 times/ game)
• The Tigers have issued 35 walks (3.9 times/ game)
• Detroit pitching has allowed 13 home runs (1.4/ game)
• Detroit batters have hit 13 home runs.
Starting out 3-6 is not how I pictured it. Why would I? They can hit (and they do) but they aren’t drawing many walks and they are striking out a lot (7.2/ game). By not taking walks and striking out often they don’t have men on base when one of the big boys knocks it out. For example, in Sunday’s game the Tigers hit 3 home runs (!) but only scored 5 runs total (and lost). So far the On Base Percentage (OBP) is .324
It’s certainly not time to give up on this team (it’s only the first ½ inning after all) but it is time to straighten some things out. For the hitters they have to get on base more in order to take advantage of all of that power (32 extra base hits in 9 games should equal some runs!). They have to take the walks and put the ball into play.
The pitchers were giving up home runs like clowns throwing candy at a Memorial Day parade. That has stopped now that they are back in Comerica National Park but the runs just keep on coming. It’s the opposite of what the batters are doing. The pitchers are putting men on base and setting themselves up for big hits. Opposing teams are averaging 6.0 runs/ game. That is not going to cut it. I want to watch the Tigers in the Playoffs this year. Something needs to change to make that happen.
Not helping the pitchers is the defense. So far there have been 9 errors committed. That’s one per game! That means that those walks the pitchers gave up become Runners In Scoring Position more often. That means I’m yelling words at the radio that I shouldn’t be yelling and at a higher volume than is really necessary. That means longer innings for the pitchers. We learned in 2008 that porous defense will destroy your pitching. It just saps at your soul until you’re an angry, sullen husk of a pitcher with no juice or will to live who believes that they have to strike out everyone in order to survive.
To finish out this inning the Tigers face Texas, Oakland and Seattle. Texas (8-1) comes to Detroit and Oakland (4-5) and Seattle (5-4) are on the road. There is no time like now to turn this around.
Go Tigers!
• They are 3-6. So far they have won one game of each series (Yankees, Orioles and Royals).
• The Starters are 3-4 with an ERA of 6.49 and a WHIP of 1.60
• The Bullpen has 2 losses against it with an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.36
• The Tigers have committed 9 errors in 9 games.
• The Tigers have walked 25 times (2.8 times/ game)
• The Tigers have issued 35 walks (3.9 times/ game)
• Detroit pitching has allowed 13 home runs (1.4/ game)
• Detroit batters have hit 13 home runs.
Starting out 3-6 is not how I pictured it. Why would I? They can hit (and they do) but they aren’t drawing many walks and they are striking out a lot (7.2/ game). By not taking walks and striking out often they don’t have men on base when one of the big boys knocks it out. For example, in Sunday’s game the Tigers hit 3 home runs (!) but only scored 5 runs total (and lost). So far the On Base Percentage (OBP) is .324
It’s certainly not time to give up on this team (it’s only the first ½ inning after all) but it is time to straighten some things out. For the hitters they have to get on base more in order to take advantage of all of that power (32 extra base hits in 9 games should equal some runs!). They have to take the walks and put the ball into play.
The pitchers were giving up home runs like clowns throwing candy at a Memorial Day parade. That has stopped now that they are back in Comerica National Park but the runs just keep on coming. It’s the opposite of what the batters are doing. The pitchers are putting men on base and setting themselves up for big hits. Opposing teams are averaging 6.0 runs/ game. That is not going to cut it. I want to watch the Tigers in the Playoffs this year. Something needs to change to make that happen.
Not helping the pitchers is the defense. So far there have been 9 errors committed. That’s one per game! That means that those walks the pitchers gave up become Runners In Scoring Position more often. That means I’m yelling words at the radio that I shouldn’t be yelling and at a higher volume than is really necessary. That means longer innings for the pitchers. We learned in 2008 that porous defense will destroy your pitching. It just saps at your soul until you’re an angry, sullen husk of a pitcher with no juice or will to live who believes that they have to strike out everyone in order to survive.
To finish out this inning the Tigers face Texas, Oakland and Seattle. Texas (8-1) comes to Detroit and Oakland (4-5) and Seattle (5-4) are on the road. There is no time like now to turn this around.
Go Tigers!
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