Around the Horn... World Series addition

Well, not a Tigers' World Series addition, but the Yankees and the Phillies start the 2009 World Series tomorrow night. That means there may be as few as 4 games of MLB baseball remaining for this year! Since I am a one sport guy that means many long, dark months of boring.

But, there have been some Tiger-ish things happening and some great analysis being done of what was, in the end, a fruitless Tigers' season. So here are some things worth reading-

Firstly there is 2nd, as in 2nd Base. Since DD made what maybe his best trade ever and acquired Placido Polanco for an insane, homicidal maniac Polanco has been one of the best 2nd basemen in the game. He is a consistent .300 hitter who hardly ever strikes out (6.5% of his Tiger at bats have resulted in a K) he makes a great #2 hitter. Plus his defense is as solid as it gets (although he is getting older and late in the year he seemed to lose some of his range). But, DD has apparently decided that Detroit cannot afford to pay the salary that PP would make (deserve!) as a free agent. So, in his post-season news conference Dombrowski indicated that the Polanco era was over and that the Scott Sizemore era was about to start. That will sadly, but probably, still happen. But Sizemore, playing in the Arizona Fall League, fractured his ankle when he was slid into as he turned a double play (I wonder if he got the second out?). But he had surgery today and apparently everything will be okay for Spring Train '10. (Isn't that what they said about Zumaya and Bonderman?

Personally, I hate to see Polanco go. It seems to me that "as Polly goes, so go the Tigers". More so than Granderson, or even the big bats, it seems that when Polly is hitting the Tigers are scoring and his glove is always solid. I understand that Detroit has a huge payroll to cover and some of it that might pay Polanco is wasted on others (yes, I'm looking at you Robertson and you too Willis).

To see some analysis of Polly's work go to "Fire Jim Leyland" and check this out.

Tiger Tales takes an in depth look at Detroit's defense and offense position by position. So if you are playing "arm chair GM" and wishing you could pencil that big bat into the line up, Lee can help you decide where to put him.

Here we have what is best about blogs and the regular baseball writers: an idea gets thrown out there and somebody wonders "is that true?" and challenges it (the dialectic lives!). Monday in the Freep John Lowe postulated that the Tigers are terrible at hitting doubles, even in Comerica National Park (and Dave Dombrowski agrees with him).

But, Billfer at Detroit Tigers Weblog looked at it differently. Maybe it's the park and not the club?

Roar of the Tigers takes a hard (and funny) look at the pitchers of 2009.

I'm working on a bit of baseball history, so look for stuff like that as I try to make it through the dark months until Spring Training.

2009- what a wild ride

So, when it is all said and done the Detroit Tigers finished 2nd in the AL Central. In what seems to be a disturbing pattern the Tigers lead their division for most of the season, but when it was over they had given up control t somebody else. This year it was the Twins, who took control after 11 innings in an extra game (#163) in extra innings (12) after the lead see-sawed back and forth for the last 5 innings. But how did it come down to that anyway?

Way back in Spring Training most of us were worried about the pitching. We couldn't tell whether or not we had 5 for the rotation. Would Verlander bounce back from 2008? Would Edwin Jackson be able to find the strike zone? Would this Porcello kid be able to hold his own in the Big Leagues? At least we had Galarraga right? (He did so well in the World Baseball Classic!). Would Dontrelle Willis, Zach Miner or Nate Robertson be our 5th starter?

Or how about the bullpen? Would Zumaya be our closer? Maybe it would be that new Lyon guy. It couldn't be Rodney though, right? Could Seay be the LOOGy? Could Ryan Perry hold up?

It seemed that pitching would be the biggest weakness for the Tigers in 2009. Wow, was that wrong!

Verlander not only bounced back, but lead the Majors in strike outs (269) and is in the conversation for the American League Cy Young award. Edwin Jackson became a strike throwing machine (at least for the 1st half of the year) and was an All Star. Rick Porcello is in the running for Rookie of the Year for his 14-9 record.

Fernando Rodney not only earned the role of closer but saved 37 of 38 opportunities. Unfortunately, if it was not a save opportunity he sucked (except for #163, he was very good in that one). Ryan Perry was "effectively wild" in his first season with Detroit (with some time in Toledo to fix some bugs). Brandon Lyon started out poorly, but became an absolute lock as the set up man with a WHIP of merely 1.07 over 64 appearances. That guy nobody knew about (Ni) sure became known as he had a WHIP of 1.06 in 36 appearances and became the fill in for Seay after Seay was injured late in the year. For most of the year Seay was the most effective man in the bullpen. Toward the end of the year Seay started to appear more human (probably his injury before it became known).

Over all the Tigers starters had 60 wins and 55 losses with an ERA of 4.34 (5th in the League). They allowed 461 earned runs (3th in the League).

So pitching was a great success for the Tigers in 2009. We'll look at the other aspects of the game in future posts.

The Game of the Ages...

It is Friday and my voice is just getting back to normal. That was, without question, one of the best baseball games I have ever watched (and I was only able to watch the last 4 innings on TV).

I missed seeing the Magglio home run in the 8th, but I was yelling and screaming in the car as Dan and Jim called the play. I missed seeing Rick Porcello strike out 8 men in under 7 innings, but thanks to Mike's text updates I knew he was doing it. My response was- "Kid Rick thinks he is JV jr!" and the now traditional "KKKKKKKK!"

By the time I got home it was the Twins' half of the 8th and Lyon was doing his thing. When Minnesota brought in Joe Nathan in the 8th and sent him out in the 9th I really thought we had it. For crying out loud, when the bases were loaded and Brandon Inge got hit by the pitch I thought we had it (wow did the ump blow that call)! For what it's worth, I really though Granderson was safe when he was doubled off 1st base on Magglio's bullet to short.

That game was not played. That game was fought. I know of people who don't even like baseball who could not turn off that game. That was a battle to the death. When the Twins finally pushed that winning run across home plate I could at least know that the Tigers did not give up. I could see that they tenaciously and ferociously battled back and forth with a team that was their equal in almost all ways. If you have to play an extra game then it should be balanced. If you watch a rookie make a blunder that sets up the tying run, then at least he should do it by trying to end the game on a difficult catch (yes, Raburn- that is you).

In the end, what cost the Tigers this game was the same thing that cost them the division- when they had men on base they could not get them home. Laird left 10 men on base, Inge left 8 and Polanco left 5. If you can't score then the great pitching and defense won't matter.

And I must give credit to Fernando Rodney! He faced 15 men before it was over. Leyland just sent him out there over and over again. I'm not impressed with Leyland there, but I am impressed with Rodney. He may never pitch for Detroit again, but that was an amazing performance.

I will be looking at the season in the days to come and as off season news happens I'll be putting my 2 cents worth in, but for now I will let my throat rest and relish the season that just ended.

Thank you Detroit Tigers for a crazy ride.

There can be only One...

I love the movie Highlander (the first one). An epic battle as our hero eliminates his opponents one by one until there is only the final battle to be completed, because there can be only one.

That is what this last month has felt like as I watch the Tigers slog their way through the American League Central. They started strong, fell flat and then picked themselves up and battled on. They could never quite put the Twins away though, and there is no script writer making sure our heroes prevail.

As today started the Magic # was 2. The Tigers, with Verlander on the mound and Granderson everywhere else, held the White Sox to 3 runs while scoring 5 themselves (Ryan Raburn with 2 home runs and Magglio Ordonez showing us that he can pull homers to left too). So the Tigers finally got a win in October and had to sit and wait to see if the Royals could overcome the Twins to end the race.

But that was not to be. The Twins beat the Royals 13-4.

So now there will be a one game, sudden death, winner take all, play off game. There can be only one. That game will be played in the HHH Dome. A truly horrible place to play a high pressure game if you are not a Minnesota Twin. (And we thought we were done with that place.)

The Tigers are 7 and 11 against the Twins this year. From what I can make out at Baseball-Reference.com the Tigers are 2-7 in the Dome this year. Rick Porcello will pitch for Detroit (according to Leyland after today's game). Rick is 1-2 in 4 starts against the Twins this year with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings (according to my numbers). He did not win in the Dome.

But the Tigers have scored an average of 4.89 runs/ game off of the Twins this year so this should be a fight.

No matter what this has been a great ride. After 162 games the Tigers finished 86-76 in 1st place (tied of course)! I hoped that they would not embarrass themselves this year and that Dombrowski could make 2010 competitive, so to have 2009 be so competitive was great (and frustrating at times to be sure).

It all comes down to Tuesday night. The game is on TV on TBS.

There can be only one!

Week 26 Games back Elimination # Tigers -- -- Twins -- -- W. Sox 7 E Indians 21 E Royals 21 E

The End is Near?

It is 12:30 on October 4th. In 35 minutes the Tigers start their last regular season game of the year. Last night they lost to the White Sox and the Twins beat the Royals, so there is a tie between the Twins and Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central. The magic number is still 2. It hasn't moved all week. It was 2 after the Tigers and Twins split their four game series.

Going into the month of September the wisdom was that if the Tigers played .500 baseball they would win, unless the Twins played incredible baseball. Well, in the month of September the Twins have played solid baseball (16- 11) .591 and the Tigers played .571 baseball (16-12). Part of the problem is that the Twins have not had a losing streak of more than 3 games. The Tigers were very streaky at the beginning of September (6 W's followed by 5 L's). During that time the Twins went 4-7. Since then the Twins have played 15-5 (.750). The Tigers have played 8-10.

The point at the end of this proverbial stick is that we are not seeing a collapse on the part of the Tigers, this is the baseball they have played all year (actually September was their 2nd best month of the year). The Twins are playing way above their previous ability. I don't know if it's their manager or their system or the closing of the Dome. Regardless of the reason, the whole season comes down to today (and possibly Tuesday, but let's hope it doesn't get to that).

I am now going to get ready to watch The Game. Justin Verlander goes for his 19th win today, and a chance to win the pennant. Remember, nothing has changed all week- if the Tigers win and the Twins lose the Tigers clinch the AL Central crown.

Today is The Day!

The proverbial "wire"...

157 down, 5 to go.

What an awesome year this has been to be a Tigers' fan! According to my handy, dandy calendar the Tigers have been in first place since the end of April and have owned it all by themselves since May.

This is not a "blow your doors off" type of team. As we sit mid-way through the "most important series since 1987" I want to look at what we have in front of us.

Pitching: according to baseball-reference.com the team ERA for the Tigers is 4.27. They give up an average of 4.54 runs per game according to my numbers. I have mentioned this on a couple of the BYB game threads, but the Tigers have allowed 2 runs or less in 26% (41) of their games so far this year! In fact, so far this year they have allowed only 713 runs. The only team in the American League who is better is the Boston Red Sox (709). The Tigers hold their opponents to few runs consistently (with 9 shutouts so far).

The other piece of that puzzle is the defense. Again the Tigers have made huge improvements this year. Looking at Fangraphs you can see that in 2009 the Tigers are rated 3rd best team in Major League Baseball. In 2008 they were 26th! This was the drum I was beating last year: the pitchers couldn't trust the defense to make outs, so the starters had to make extra outs too often. This gave more and more opportunities to the opponents to score runs. This year that is not true at all. It simply makes the great starting pitchers and relievers more effective.

I give all of the credit on this to Dave Dombrowski. In 2008 he tried to win with another "murderers row". He traded off defense for runs. It didn't work at all. The Tigers scores lots of runs, but allowed so many more that they finished last in the AL Central. DD took his lumps and fixed it. He dumped Renteria and got Adam Everett. He got Gerald Laird, who is simply amazing on defense. He put Inge back at 3rd. Add that to the always awesome Placido Polanco and the ever improving Miguel Cabrera at 1st and we have a very solid infield making tons of amazing plays all year. The outfield is a little more porous. Magglio is not a fast as he used to be, so Clete Thomas has had lots of defensive playing time in RF. Guillen has settled in at LH now that he is no longer hurt. Granderson is not as purely awesome as he has been, but he is still an outstanding CF.

As far as scoring... well, as I said above- Dombrowski has now set up a lower scoring but better fielding team. So the Tigers have scored 722 runs this season so far. This is definitely worse than anyone expected from them, but it has been consistent. We can look at injuries and off years and age and all sorts of issues that effect hitting a baseball to the right spot consistently, but after 157 games we know what we have. The Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 45 games (29%). This puts them right in the middle of the pack for runs (15th). Compare this to last year when they scored 821 (4th).

The important thing is that right now, as I wrap up my lunch break, they are in 1st place on September 30th. They have a 2 game lead over the Twins with 5 games left to play. They are a good team in a very weak division. They have every reason to be confident that they will win the AL Central, the pitching is there and the defense is there. They need to score some more runs, just one run more than their opponents for the last 5 games.