Bad Pitching beats Good Hitting every time!

First off I owe an apology. It has been brought to my attention that while I was blogging more regularly the Tigers were winning more regularly. Since I have been away from Section 148 they have not played as well. So I offer my deepest and most heartfelt apologies to all Tiger fans! I honestly had no idea the impact such a tiny spec of the blogosphere could have on an an institution such as my beloved Tigers. I have let down not only all of my fans but all Tigers’ fans. It is inexcusable, but I ask for your grace none-the-less.

So where did the Tigers end up during my absence?

July: W/L 13-13

Runs Scored 152

Runs Against 129

Batting Avg .286

Slugging % .466

Runs Scored/Game 5.85

Starting ERA 5.14

Bullpen ERA 3.96

Runs Against/ Game 5.00

Where exactly do you look to start pulling this together? I must say that the offense seems to be cranking out runs pretty nicely. They did accumulate their 11^th shutout of the year last week, but even with those 0’s in the equation they average 5.07 runs/ game over the year. In the last 14 games they have averaged 5.65! Miguel Cabrera won the Player of the Month award! Ordonez is going for his second consecutive batting title! Maybe later I’ll look at the distribution of those runs (they score 0 runs 7/28 and 14 runs 7/30) but even so, almost 6 runs per game is pretty good and where the numbers showed they would be in the pre-season.

So how about them pitchers! Wow. Just “Wow!!”

Starting pitchers- well their ERA for the month was 5.14 and they averaged 5 2/3 innings pitched per start. To put that into perspective – June showed a 3.53 ERA and an average of 6 1/3 innings per start. What is probably contributing to this is the homeruns. July had 23 HR hit off of the Starters (1.38 per 9 innings pitched). June had 16 HR (0.87 per 9 innings pitched). The worst offender was Nate Robertson (his name is going to come up in a negative context a lot here) with a HR/9 of 2.59 (9 HR in 31 1/3 IP). Walks + Hits/ Inning Pitched (WHIP) was 1.42 in July (up from 1.33 in June). Again Nate had the worst at 1.85. That means roughly a combination of almost 2 baserunners per inning pitched. You put that many guys on base, and then serve up nice fat meatballs to knock out of the park 2.59 times per 9 innings and you end up with an ERA of 8.62 for the month for Mr. Robertson. Now in June he had a WHIP of 1.52 but HR/9 of only 0.87! Something horrible happened to Nate during July (and it’s not getting cured in August). But although Robertson was the worst, he was not alone. Verlander had an ERA of 4.70, Rogers’ was 4.73! The best pitcher was Galarraga with an ERA of 3.23 and WHIP of 1.21.

(If you would like to, statistically, dessicate Nate go here.) Apparently he is the worst starter in Tigers' history. At least he has that going for him!

So the Bullpen takes over somewhere in the 6^th inning and then what happens? The Bullpen’s ERA was 5.00 (43 earned runs in 97 2/3 IP). Their biggest issues seems to be walks, they do that a lot (59 BB in those 97 2/3 IP or 5.43 BB per 9/IP). The WHIP for the Bullpen was 1.52 for July. That is actually not any worse than June’s (1.52). But those homeruns again- HR/9 was 1.20 in July and only 0.36 in June! So you put a guy on and then let the guy behind him hit it out of the park.

Jones got demoted (and diagnosed with tendinitis) at the end of the month. But there really isn’t anyone who can close better than Jones on the team right now (at least when he’s healthy). Zumaya can’t seem to control that amazing fastball of his (7.85 BB/9). Rodney has been horrible in many of his appearances (5.45 BB/9). The best relief pitcher Detroit has right now is Bobby Seay. He had 1 earned run over 11 1/3 IP and struck out 13. He is really the only arm I would trust right now.

So, in spite of scoring 5.85 runs in the average game the Tigers allowed 5.0 in an average game in July. That certainly sounds like a .500 team doesn’t it? That, my dear Reader, is what we are looking at right now, a mediocre team. We have an outstanding line up, but below average pitchers which averages out to average. I hate to admit this, but this team will not catch the Twins or the White Sox to win the Central. I predict that the Twins will win it. They played .600 ball in July and averaged .9 runs scored more than their opponents over that time. The Tigers had the same run differential, but I just don’t see them doing anything but losing games late in the game as their weak pitching wastes good hitting.

Almost there!

Rockies 1, Tigers 7

Detroit continues to rack up wins at an impressive rate. It is almost too good to be true. They have won 15 of their last 19 games (.790 ball). They have won their last 5 series (with back to back sweeps!). Tonight they finally have more Runs Scored (382) than Runs Against (380). That's not a lot more, but it's better than have more Runs Against. As of the end of tonight's play they are 1 game below .500. That sounds much better than it is, but it still sounds sooo sweet after being 8 full games below .500 on June 1st.

There is no single standout on the team. Marcus Thames was hitting a home run every time he hit the ball for about 2 weeks, but now Granderson and Sheffield (returned from 2 weeks on the DL) are taking their turn. The "a walk's as good as a hit" line that my coach used to tell me ('cause he knew I couldn't hit) turned out to be true when Clete Thomas drew two (2!) bases loaded walks against the Cardinals to "drive" in the first and third (game winning) runs.

Nate Robertson pitched 6.1 innings and gave up 11 hits- but 0 earned runs. Jason Beck reports that no Tiger has done that since 1956. I don't know if that is great or terrible pitching, but add another W to the column.

So far this week Detroit is 4 and 1 with one more game this week. This is the last series against National League Teams and then it is back to AL play. All of the American League Teams play well against the NL, but Detroit is just crazy. This year they are 11 and 5 with 2 games to go. They beat the Cards and the Padres, two teams picked by many to contend for the playoffs this year. Tigers just love NL teams!

Today they attempt to hit the .500 mark for the first time since March 30th.

The Sleepers awake?!

Can this be for real? Do we dare hope? Can we handle more ups and downs from these 2008 Tigers?

I don't pretend to know all of the answers, but let's look at the numbers and see what they say?

I've said before that although the hitting hasn't been that great this year it is really the defense and pitching that are hurting the Tigers, so how is that working out lately?

In Weeks 1 through 3 the ERA for the Starting Rotation was just north of 6 (6.17 by my figures) and they were facing an average of 4.67 batters per inning (BPI). During that stretch the Tigers' record was 5 and 13.

Compare that to Weeks 9 through 11 (we are finishing up Week 11 now)- ERA for Starters is 3.66. That number includes both Dontrelle Willis' terrible night Monday against Cleveland and Justin Verlander's amazing night on Wednesday against Chicago. Not giving up over two runs per game is huge! The Starters are also facing fewer batters per inning, only 4.21 since June 1 so they are staying in the game longer with lower ERA's.

Now to that hitting thing...
In the first two weeks the lineup scored 33 runs (3 runs per game). For this week and last week they have scored 43 runs (4.3 runs per game). Their Batting Average was .246 at the beginning. In the last two weeks is has been .254. Their slugging percentage (total bases/ at bats) was .356 in the early weeks and has been .375 in the last two.

All of these trends are in the right direction! In the first 3 weeks of the year their record was 6 and 12 (.333). In the last 3 weeks it has been 7 and 9 (with 3 games to play yet this week). If the Starting pitching continues at this rate and the batters continue to score runs there is still hope that they can make this race exciting for Tigers' fans.