Bad Pitching beats Good Hitting every time!

First off I owe an apology. It has been brought to my attention that while I was blogging more regularly the Tigers were winning more regularly. Since I have been away from Section 148 they have not played as well. So I offer my deepest and most heartfelt apologies to all Tiger fans! I honestly had no idea the impact such a tiny spec of the blogosphere could have on an an institution such as my beloved Tigers. I have let down not only all of my fans but all Tigers’ fans. It is inexcusable, but I ask for your grace none-the-less.

So where did the Tigers end up during my absence?

July: W/L 13-13

Runs Scored 152

Runs Against 129

Batting Avg .286

Slugging % .466

Runs Scored/Game 5.85

Starting ERA 5.14

Bullpen ERA 3.96

Runs Against/ Game 5.00

Where exactly do you look to start pulling this together? I must say that the offense seems to be cranking out runs pretty nicely. They did accumulate their 11^th shutout of the year last week, but even with those 0’s in the equation they average 5.07 runs/ game over the year. In the last 14 games they have averaged 5.65! Miguel Cabrera won the Player of the Month award! Ordonez is going for his second consecutive batting title! Maybe later I’ll look at the distribution of those runs (they score 0 runs 7/28 and 14 runs 7/30) but even so, almost 6 runs per game is pretty good and where the numbers showed they would be in the pre-season.

So how about them pitchers! Wow. Just “Wow!!”

Starting pitchers- well their ERA for the month was 5.14 and they averaged 5 2/3 innings pitched per start. To put that into perspective – June showed a 3.53 ERA and an average of 6 1/3 innings per start. What is probably contributing to this is the homeruns. July had 23 HR hit off of the Starters (1.38 per 9 innings pitched). June had 16 HR (0.87 per 9 innings pitched). The worst offender was Nate Robertson (his name is going to come up in a negative context a lot here) with a HR/9 of 2.59 (9 HR in 31 1/3 IP). Walks + Hits/ Inning Pitched (WHIP) was 1.42 in July (up from 1.33 in June). Again Nate had the worst at 1.85. That means roughly a combination of almost 2 baserunners per inning pitched. You put that many guys on base, and then serve up nice fat meatballs to knock out of the park 2.59 times per 9 innings and you end up with an ERA of 8.62 for the month for Mr. Robertson. Now in June he had a WHIP of 1.52 but HR/9 of only 0.87! Something horrible happened to Nate during July (and it’s not getting cured in August). But although Robertson was the worst, he was not alone. Verlander had an ERA of 4.70, Rogers’ was 4.73! The best pitcher was Galarraga with an ERA of 3.23 and WHIP of 1.21.

(If you would like to, statistically, dessicate Nate go here.) Apparently he is the worst starter in Tigers' history. At least he has that going for him!

So the Bullpen takes over somewhere in the 6^th inning and then what happens? The Bullpen’s ERA was 5.00 (43 earned runs in 97 2/3 IP). Their biggest issues seems to be walks, they do that a lot (59 BB in those 97 2/3 IP or 5.43 BB per 9/IP). The WHIP for the Bullpen was 1.52 for July. That is actually not any worse than June’s (1.52). But those homeruns again- HR/9 was 1.20 in July and only 0.36 in June! So you put a guy on and then let the guy behind him hit it out of the park.

Jones got demoted (and diagnosed with tendinitis) at the end of the month. But there really isn’t anyone who can close better than Jones on the team right now (at least when he’s healthy). Zumaya can’t seem to control that amazing fastball of his (7.85 BB/9). Rodney has been horrible in many of his appearances (5.45 BB/9). The best relief pitcher Detroit has right now is Bobby Seay. He had 1 earned run over 11 1/3 IP and struck out 13. He is really the only arm I would trust right now.

So, in spite of scoring 5.85 runs in the average game the Tigers allowed 5.0 in an average game in July. That certainly sounds like a .500 team doesn’t it? That, my dear Reader, is what we are looking at right now, a mediocre team. We have an outstanding line up, but below average pitchers which averages out to average. I hate to admit this, but this team will not catch the Twins or the White Sox to win the Central. I predict that the Twins will win it. They played .600 ball in July and averaged .9 runs scored more than their opponents over that time. The Tigers had the same run differential, but I just don’t see them doing anything but losing games late in the game as their weak pitching wastes good hitting.

Tell me THAT didn't feel good!

Tigers 19 - Royals 4

Coming into this game the Tigers had been owned by Kansas City in 2008. First the Royals swept Detroit (at Detroit) to start the year (starting the 0-7 start). When the Tigers went to KC the Royals swept them again. Coming into this game the Royals had scored 21 runs against the Tigers this year. Detroit had only scored 11 runs in those first 6 games.

It isn't like this one game erases the 6 games Detroit gave up to KC so far this year. It doesn't even mean that Detroit won't give the next two games away and leave Kansas City with a 1 and 8 record against the Royals. But, it does mean that for one night all is good: Detroit gave the Royals a much deserved spanking. As a bonus the White Sox and the Twins lost today so the Tigers are 5.5 games out of 1st and 5.0 games out of 2nd place (7.0 games out of the Wild Card).

Week in Review 15 (... or why the Twins?)

It is an absolutely beautiful Sunday morning. I am out on the deck drinking a cup of coffee, listening to the birds and writing this blog. I feel that this perfection of the writing situation is necessary to balance out the wretchedness I must convey, the disappointment and sorrow that is Week 15 of Tigers' baseball 2008.

Last Sunday started out with Nate Robertson pitching 9 full innings and allowing only 1 run to the Mariners. That was not enough to win though, so most of the bullpen came out and pitched what turned out to be a 15 inning game that Detroit won 2 to 1 against Seattle. There are many outstanding things about that game:

• Nate Robertson pitching 9 innings with only 1 run allowed and only 4 hits. That is the best game I can remember Nate pitching- ever. His ERA is over 5 and his WalksHitsperInningPitched (WHIP) is 1.14 (even after that game). So he is not your typical dominant pitcher. But he was playing ace stud out there on Sunday.
• This was the 4th game against Seattle and the last one of a road trip. It is easy to just roll over and think about being home again. Instead they "ground it out" and put together a close win (2 to 1 in the end) over the course of 15 innings. It showed that this team knows every game counts and they were not going to give up anything. That was the biggest thing for me.
• The bullpen sent 4 guys out there to cover 6 innings and they combined for 2 hits, 3 walks and 3 strikeouts. If only they pitched like that everyday!

That was Sunday. Then there was a mini-series with the Indians at Comerica. The Tigers beat the Indians both games, but that second one was a serious come from behind win. By the 6th inning Detroit was down by 4 runs and Eddie Bonine was not only sent to the Tigers' showers, but all the way to AA Lake Erie to figure out the whole "pitching to AL batters" thing.

So the Tigers win the first 3 games of the week! But...

The Twins come to Comerica for a four game series to go into the All Star Break. Game 1 had the Twins come back from being 4 runs down to win. Game 2 and 3 they win by one run each game. Lee Panas of Tiger Tales does a great job of evaluating the Twins and proving statistically that they should not be winning so many #$%^ games! But they do. So far this month the Twins are playing .727 ball (Tigers are .324). The Twins outscore their opponents by .9 runs per game in July (Tigers give up .2 runs per game). The bottom line is that the Twins got hot in June and are still hot. Detroit got hot in June and have cooled down. The White Sox are also continuing to win most of their games (.636 in July).

For the Week 15:
Starters' ERA 4.17
Bullpen ERA 2.78
Runs Allowed/Game 4.2
Batting SLG % .444
Batting AVG % .261
Runs Scored/ Game 5.33

3 Wins and 3 Losses and 8 games behind the White Sox in 3rd place.

Week 16 is a short one (because of the All Star Game). The Tigers try to take the last game of the series with the Twins today and then head to Baltimore on Thursday for 4 games against the Orioles (who are 45 and 47 as of this morning).

Carlos Guillen is representing the Tigers at the All Star Game. He is a good choice (though I would have chosen Magglio Ordonez if he were not on the DL). But in reality, it's hard to put any of these guys on the All Star Team based on 2008 alone.

Week 14 (or “National League, how we miss thee!”)

Twins and Mariners

3 Wins- 4 Losses

I am not too worried about a road trip to the West Coast that ends up 3 and 4. I honestly believed that Detroit would do more against the Mariners, but that was based on the first few times the teams met. Between meetings the Mariners got a new manager and have won 10 of their last 16 games (or something close to that). Seattle certainly didn’t want to remain the punching bag they had become, so they had to change something. Time will tell if they can become as good as they used to be a few years ago.

But this is a Tigers’ blog and we should focus there.

Starters’ ERA- in Week 14 it climbed to 4.93 which was not great. Robertson had the worst outing (6 earned runs in 4 innings pitched) but he was not alone- Galarraga, Rogers and Bonine all had starts that ended up with ERA’s over 4.50. Balancing it out, Verlander and Galarraga also had solid starts during the week (2 runs/ 6 innings and 1 run/ 6 innings respectively).

Bullpen ERA- 2.61. Certainly not a terrible week. The bullpen allowed 6 runs during the week over 23 innings. Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney gave up 4 of those in only 2 2/3 innings to blow 2 games. Without those performances (or at least with better performances in those 2 2/3 innings we are talking about a 5 and 2 week instead of 3 and 4. Not – so – good was allowing 6 walks over those same 23 innings. Zach Miner paid the price of too many walks (4) by walking to Toledo. Meritocracy at its finest!

The Lineup did not hold up their end of the deal this week. I had some painful memories of early April that I believed I had successfully buried deeply into my subconscious. The BA for the week was .274, SLG was .403 and Runs Scored / Game was 3.4. A major factor was that Magglio Ordonez was on the DL. They were shutout for the 10^th time this season on Wednesday (by the Twins). To add insult to injury, they committed 8 errors- the worst week of the year defensively.

As the week closed the Tigers were 43 and 44 overall and 7.0 games behind the White Sox (3rd place in the AL Central).

This coming week the Tigers return to Detroit after one more game in Seattle (which they barely won) on Sunday. They have 2 games against the Indians and a 4 game series against the 2nd place Twins. Cleveland has the worst record in the AL Central and was the only team in the division to have a losing record in Interleague play. The Twins are playing great baseball at home but not so great on the road. Detroit really needs to win both of these series as they head into the All Star Break next week.

Rivalry

Tigers vs. Twins July ‘08

This has been a very interesting series. You have two good teams battling for every win they can get as they both chase the White Sox, and it’s only July 1.

Usually I look at the numbers, but this series brings up the softer(?) side of baseball- the personalities and emotions that make it a game. I didn’t see the bean ball that the Twins’ pitcher Glen Perkins threw at Carlos Guillen, but I saw Galarraga throw 2 at Mauer a couple of innings later and I thought “Wow! That looked weird.” Then I saw a replay of the ball thrown at Guillen earlier and those two pitches made sense. I kind of admire the way that Pudge and Galarraga dealt with it too, they didn’t go after the first batter they faced in the next inning. Nope, they waited- for the Twins’ catcher. No point in brushing back an outfielder, they can’t change anything anyway. Nope, since you can’t show the pitcher you’re pissed you wait for his “battery mate”.

I, personally, don’t see anything wrong with “purpose pitches” as long as the pitcher is simply keeping the batter from getting too comfortable on the plate. It all fits into strategy and tactics in the game. I don’t think letting go at somebody’s head is part of that. I’m not even sure that Perkins meant to do that against Guillen, but Guillen certainly did. When I saw the replay I was impressed with the “look” (stare?, death wish?) Perkins received in return. Then Galarraga returns the favor, just sending a message that “you can’t mess with my boys!”. Good baseball.

Then there is another story in this series- Craig Monroe. He was a huge part of 2006 for Detroit, but in 2007 he couldn’t duplicate and he was traded to the Cubs before he ended up in Minnesota, but not happy about it. He wanted to stay with Detroit and was bitter about how it all worked out. Well, 2008 has been much like 2007 for C-Mo. He hasn’t hit well for the Twins (.218 BA and .451 SLG with 8 home runs). But he saves up something special for when he plays Detroit. 3 of his 8 home runs have been against the Tigers, including a 3 run blast on Tuesday night that turned out to be the game winner. There is some serious emotion there. It reminds me of Magglio Ordonez playing against the White Sox, he just seems to take it up a few notches against his old team (which is should be really scary for Chicago). C-Mo lets his bat speak for him saying “This could have been for you, but now it’s going to hurt you Detroit!”. I admire that (even if I wouldn’t take him back).

There is much to this game that stats don’t really show. That’s why it’s fun to watch teams like Detroit and Minnesota play it the way it is supposed to be played. I just hope Detroit plays a little bit harder on Wednesday to take the series.

Half way there...

Rockies 6, Tigers 7

Well, they are half way there. With the win yesterday over the Rockies the Tigers reached .500 for the first time this season. After today's game they will have played 1/2 of the season. They are currently 5 games behind the first place White Sox in the AL Central.

For the first half of the year the Tigers are batting .274 and slugging .435. They have scored 389 runs for an average of 4.86 (with the trend moving up). They have hit 146 doubles, 17 triples and 86 home runs while taking 278 walks and striking out 489 times.

They are pitching with a ERA of 4.64* for the Starters with 238 earned runs over 461.9 innings pitched. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.81 over 132.8 innings pitched. The Starters' ERA is trending down.

Interleague play ends today. Detroits eats National League teams for dinner (12 and 5 so far). I believe I heard a stat saying that Detroit was 31 and 9 over the past few years of Interleague play. Certainly this year playing National League teams has been a factor in their resurgence. Monday they start the 2nd half of the year against the Twins who are the also playing very well against NL teams (.600 ball over the month of June). Then the Tigers play against Seattle and Cleaveland before the Twins again.

Looking at June for all teams in the AL Central I see that the White Sox scored more runs than any other AL Central team (147 or 6.1 per game) and that includes being swept twice! The White Sox also allowed the fewest runs (101 or 4.2 per game). A really good combo. Detroit won more games but scored "only" 121 runs (5.0 per game) while allowing 102 (4.3 per game). The Twins scored 128 (5.1/ game) and allowed 116 (4.6/ game). The Indians scored 130 (5.2/ game) and allowed 125 (5.0/ game) and the Royals scored 122 (5.1/ game) and allowed 113 (4.7/ game). I hope the White Sox cool down before the Tigers play them again.

They are half way done and have a clean slate. They have to make up 5 games and play .610 ball for the rest of the year to make 90 wins for the season. They did better than that for June.

Let's enjoy this last game against the NL today.

Almost there!

Rockies 1, Tigers 7

Detroit continues to rack up wins at an impressive rate. It is almost too good to be true. They have won 15 of their last 19 games (.790 ball). They have won their last 5 series (with back to back sweeps!). Tonight they finally have more Runs Scored (382) than Runs Against (380). That's not a lot more, but it's better than have more Runs Against. As of the end of tonight's play they are 1 game below .500. That sounds much better than it is, but it still sounds sooo sweet after being 8 full games below .500 on June 1st.

There is no single standout on the team. Marcus Thames was hitting a home run every time he hit the ball for about 2 weeks, but now Granderson and Sheffield (returned from 2 weeks on the DL) are taking their turn. The "a walk's as good as a hit" line that my coach used to tell me ('cause he knew I couldn't hit) turned out to be true when Clete Thomas drew two (2!) bases loaded walks against the Cardinals to "drive" in the first and third (game winning) runs.

Nate Robertson pitched 6.1 innings and gave up 11 hits- but 0 earned runs. Jason Beck reports that no Tiger has done that since 1956. I don't know if that is great or terrible pitching, but add another W to the column.

So far this week Detroit is 4 and 1 with one more game this week. This is the last series against National League Teams and then it is back to AL play. All of the American League Teams play well against the NL, but Detroit is just crazy. This year they are 11 and 5 with 2 games to go. They beat the Cards and the Padres, two teams picked by many to contend for the playoffs this year. Tigers just love NL teams!

Today they attempt to hit the .500 mark for the first time since March 30th.