Rainy Days and Sundays always get me down...

I apologize to those of you getting ready to tell me that it is supposed to be "Mondays". I tried, but that just didn't fit.

It's Sunday. In fact it's Mothers' Day. As a gift to all of their collective Moms the Lord sent rain to Detroit today. That allowed the Tigers to call their Moms without needing to explain why they hit 1 for 4 today and couldn't get the runner home when he was in scoring position. Of course it's entirely possible that they may have won today too. You don't really know with these guys.

What are they doing well?
Walks = 147 so far this year. That is actually a HUGE improvement over last year. The 147 is 3rd in the American League so far. In 2007 they ranked 12th (of 14) in walks with a total of 474. In other words- in 2007 the Tigers averaged 2.9 walks per game. So far this year they are averaging 3.9 walks per game. This helps to explain why the batting average can be .023 less this year yet their On Base Percentage (OBP) is basically the same as last years (.343 vs .345).

Runs = 180 YTD. That's still pretty good. 4.7 runs per game should win quite a few ball games. However, as good as that might be it is quite a bit less than they did in 2007 (5.5 runs per game) or 2006 (5.1 runs per game).

(Totally unrelated- as I write this the BoSox are doing to the Twins what they did to the Tigers earlier. The Twins came into the 9th up 9 to 6. It is currently 9 to 8 and Coco Crisp just stole 2nd to put the tying run in scoring position. What a great game! update- the Twins pulled it out with an infield grounder to SS to end it. Plus Craig Monroe hit 2 home runs in this game to give him 4 for the year. It's good to see that he found a home and is playing well. He was a huge part of 2006 for Detroit.)

Back to the Tigers...
What aren't they doing well?
Pitching- How does an Earned Run Average of 5.14 sound? Compare it to 4.57 (2007). Compare that to 3.84 (2006). If you just look at the starters so far this year the ERA actually jumps to 5.62 (including Dontrelle Willis' 4 runs in 5 innings before going on the DL).

Defense- Overall the Tigers aren't really any worse than previous years. In 2006 they averaged 0.62 Errors per game. In 2007 they averaged 0.61 per game and they are doing the same this year. But where the errors occur plays a part too. When you break it down by position you see that, although the overall error rate is slightly less this year, the infield is worse. 3B has the biggest decline- 0.391 errors per game (9/38). And for those of you wondering, Carlos Guillen has 4 and Miguel Cabrera has 5. Moving Guillen from Shortstop has improved that position from 0.303 per game in 2007 to 0.130 in 2008.

I'm not an expert at these defensive stats, so this is purely conjecture, but I have to believe that the drop in defense is not helping that Runs Against stat. Of course, by definition, an error cannot impact a pitcher's ERA. But that batter should have been out and instead they are still on base and the pitcher must face another batter. In 2007 (looking at Batters Facing Pitcher) the starters faced an average of 4.34 batters each inning. In 2008 that is up to 4.52 batters per inning.

What to do? Well, I am in the camp of people who believe that Brandon Inge should be given his old job at 3B again. I believe that he would save enough runs (and pitchers' arms) to balance out the drop in hitting from that position. Again, I don't see that this team can't score runs- they seem to do that quite well overall. Much more than that I see that they can't prevent the other teams from scoring runs. Brandon helps with that. Plus, he has played 30 of the 38 games so far this year anyway, so it isn't that his weaker bat hasn't been a part of the situation so far anyway. Brandon had 18 errors at 3rd base last year in 146 games (0.123 errors/ game). So far the Cabrera/ Guillen combo has achieved 9 in 38 games.

That's my $0.02 worth.

(all stats gathered from www.baseball-reference.com)

Where do we go from here?

May 10, 2008
Yankees at Detroit
Yankees win 5-2

Back by popular demand (a total of 50% of my readers have requested a return of this blog, thank you to both of you!!!)

I'm not even sure how to write this up (and it isn't because I haven't been posting and don't have any practice). It's more because there is so little to right about. It isn't really that the Tigers stink. They don't by most measures. Except, well - how do you put this? THEY'RE IN LAST PLACE! That is kind of hard to get around when they have played almost 40 games.

The Tigers are 3.5 games out of first as I write this. Although they have beaten the Yankees 4 games out of 5 this year, they have not done well against any other team. They have scored 180 runs (averaging 4.7 runs per game) but they have allowed 209 (averaging 5.5 runs per game).

What's weird about that is the Tigers have scored more runs than anyone in the American League except the Red Sox! It's certainly not like they can't score runs. In fact they have score 1/2 runs more per game than the rest of the Central Division. But they have also been shut out 5 times out of those 38 games, which points out the other side of the stat- they have allowed those 5.5 runs per game. The Central Division average is only 4.6 runs allowed. Now that 1/2 run per game they score above the Division average doesn't seem so hot does it?

Why? Why? Why? Well, it would be easy and cheap to blame Fox network (it certainly seems like the Tigers lose every time they are on national TV). But it seems more to be the pitching and the defense. The team's ERA is 5.15 right now and has actually been worse over the last week (5.75). In fact it is 4.99 at home in Comerica Park! Ouch!

Enough- throw strikes! Catch the ball when it comes to you! Then they will win.

Gotta go.