Wednesday, May 11, 2011

After 2 innings of play the Tigers are treading water…

Don’t get me wrong. The trends are very good right now, but the numbers don’t lie either. After the first 18 games (one “inning”) the Tigers were 4.5 games back in 3rd place. After the next 18 games (2 innings) the Tigers are 5.5 games back in 3rd place.
Yet, there are indications that what was planted in the spring is about to give fruit as summer approaches. Let’s look at some key numbers.
• 10-8 -The Tigers played .556 ball for this inning.
• 12 –The number of errors the Tigers committed this inning.
• 10-4 –The Starters record this inning with a WHIP of 1.11
• 3 –The number of walks taken by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 7.8 –The number of strikeouts by Tigers’ batters per game this inning.
• 4.78 –Runs scored per game this inning (up from 4.22 last inning).
• 3.89 –Runs allowed per game this inning (down from 5.17 last inning).
Let’s look at those last two numbers again. The batters have found some mojo, especially in the last week. For the Inning they have hit for a better average (.266 vs. .244) and slightly more power (OPS of .731 vs .707). This has translated to a more RBI, 16 more for this Inning (or almost .9 runs per game). See how easy this is? If you put more runners on you can score more runs! Of course the infamous “Tigers threaten, but do not score” is still heard throughout the land all too often.
But averaging 4.8 runs per game will not win all that many games (there is a 7 game losing streak in the middle of this Inning to prove that). So how do you win more games? Look at the last number on the list- 3.89 runs per game. While the batters had their struggles, the pitchers were often dominating games, especially the starters. The Starters allowed only 40 earned runs in 18 games. That is only 2.2 per game. They also pitched 120 1/3 innings. That is 6 2/3 innings per start. In short, the Tigers are dominating opposing lineups. There were 5 games this Inning where 0 earned runs were allowed by the starter. 0! In almost 30% of the games! There were only 2 games where 5 or more runs were allowed. It isn’t only Verlander either, they all did it at least once.
One number which stands out from the Starters’ line is walks per 9 innings (BB/9). For the first 18 games it was 4.0 and for the last 18 games it has dropped to 2.4. That is 1 1/2 fewer baserunners with chances to score. It’s a minimum of 8 few pitches that have to be thrown. It’s just better baseball.
So what changed? I’m just a compiler of data, I can’t tell you what happened inside of people’s heads. I can look at these numbers and say that the starting pitching was much better in Inning 2 than it was in Inning 1. I can say that the lineup was on base more often and that allowed for more RBI. Beyond that, I can tell you that it is more fun to watch your team win than it is to watch them lose. The Tigers had bookend on this Inning of winning streaks and a nasty losing streak of 7 games in the middle. But after 36 games they are still very much in the race and chasing the suddenly amazing Indians. It looks to be a good summer!

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

The first ½ inning is done…

The Tigers have played 9 games. The Regular Season is 162 games. This can be broken down into 9 “innings” of 18 games each (162/9 = 18). So 9 games = ½ inning. If I can remember where I first saw this laid out for me I’ll link to it because I can’t come up with stuff like this on my own.

• They are 3-6. So far they have won one game of each series (Yankees, Orioles and Royals).
• The Starters are 3-4 with an ERA of 6.49 and a WHIP of 1.60
• The Bullpen has 2 losses against it with an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.36
• The Tigers have committed 9 errors in 9 games.
• The Tigers have walked 25 times (2.8 times/ game)
• The Tigers have issued 35 walks (3.9 times/ game)
• Detroit pitching has allowed 13 home runs (1.4/ game)
• Detroit batters have hit 13 home runs.

Starting out 3-6 is not how I pictured it. Why would I? They can hit (and they do) but they aren’t drawing many walks and they are striking out a lot (7.2/ game). By not taking walks and striking out often they don’t have men on base when one of the big boys knocks it out. For example, in Sunday’s game the Tigers hit 3 home runs (!) but only scored 5 runs total (and lost). So far the On Base Percentage (OBP) is .324

It’s certainly not time to give up on this team (it’s only the first ½ inning after all) but it is time to straighten some things out. For the hitters they have to get on base more in order to take advantage of all of that power (32 extra base hits in 9 games should equal some runs!). They have to take the walks and put the ball into play.

The pitchers were giving up home runs like clowns throwing candy at a Memorial Day parade. That has stopped now that they are back in Comerica National Park but the runs just keep on coming. It’s the opposite of what the batters are doing. The pitchers are putting men on base and setting themselves up for big hits. Opposing teams are averaging 6.0 runs/ game. That is not going to cut it. I want to watch the Tigers in the Playoffs this year. Something needs to change to make that happen.
Not helping the pitchers is the defense. So far there have been 9 errors committed. That’s one per game! That means that those walks the pitchers gave up become Runners In Scoring Position more often. That means I’m yelling words at the radio that I shouldn’t be yelling and at a higher volume than is really necessary. That means longer innings for the pitchers. We learned in 2008 that porous defense will destroy your pitching. It just saps at your soul until you’re an angry, sullen husk of a pitcher with no juice or will to live who believes that they have to strike out everyone in order to survive.

To finish out this inning the Tigers face Texas, Oakland and Seattle. Texas (8-1) comes to Detroit and Oakland (4-5) and Seattle (5-4) are on the road. There is no time like now to turn this around.
Go Tigers!

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

2.5% of the season is played…

The Tigers have played 4 games (3 vs the Yankees, 1 against the O’s). They have won 1 and lost 3. Let’s break it down…
• They have been out scored 28 to 20.
• They have hit 5 home runs and given up 10.
• They have gotten 13 extra base hits (including HR) while giving up 18.
• They have committed 4 errors (vs 2 committed in their favor).
• They have struck out 32 times while striking out 27.
• They have walked 10 times while walking 14.
• The starters have an ERA of 9.74 and a WHIP of 1.92.
• The Bullpen has an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of .95

There are many questions still unanswered even ½ a week into the season:
• Who is the starting Left Fielder?
o Can Boesch continue to hit at this pace? If he does then where do you put Raburn, the official LF?
• Is Magglio’s ankle really healthy? He missed a game with tenderness and you have to be concerned with the impact his bat plays in the lineup.
• Will the starters settle in quickly? Through the first rotation the only one who was deadly was Verlander (6 IP with 3 ER on 4 BB and 8 Ks). Penny (4 1/3 IP with 8 ER on 4 BB and 3 Ks) and Scherzer (5 IP with 6 ER on 2 BB and 6 Ks) didn’t set my heart on fire. Porcello (5 IP with 5 ER on 1 BB and 4 Ks) rounded out a rough weekend for our guys.
o As a side note, the 5th starter was used out of the Pen this week. Coke allowed 2 ER in 2 1/3 IP on 0 BB and 0 Ks.
• Now that we have left New Yankee Stadium will the long ball be such a problem? 9 were allowed there (4 by Scherzer alone). Some were legit and some were just over the short wall in Right Field.
• How healthy are the Tigers right now? Aside from the injuries there are also rumors of illness, sickness, ague. People spied emptying themselves during games during the road trip. I haven’t heard much more than rumors, but this may have an impact on the…
• Defense! When will we see some real defense? There have been 4 errors in 4 games. There were other fielding issues that weren’t scored as errors as well. I can’t see the games, so I can’t judge, but defense has been a concern for this team and they are doing nothing to put those concerns to bed so far.

What can we take away from this?

There is 97% of the Season left to play. The Rotation will settle in to a solid performer. The Bullpen looks pretty good so far. The batters have struggled, but are still averaging 5 runs per game. Defense is still a concern (at least for me) and is a key (more on this in a later post). The Home Opener is Friday. It’s against the Royals. This should be good.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

It's baseball time!!!!

The Day is here (well, it's here tomorrow)!  In about 16 hours Austin Jackson will receive the first pitch of the 2011 Regular Season.  Let's take a look what we have to look forward to this season.

Here is our Opening Day roster:
Austin Jackson
Will Rhymes
Magglio Ordonez
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez

Ryan Raburn
Jhonny Peralta
Brandon Inge
Alex Avila

Justin Verlander will take the ball, after promising to have a better April than he has previously.  We all hope that he has it figured out.

Overall the Tigers had a good Spring (I know, it doesn't count, it's small sample size, blah blah blah).  Regardless of all of those truths, the Tigers had a good spring.  They finished at 20-14.  The starters had an ERA of 4.00.  And Max Scherzer's final outing brought that up after allowing 11 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings to close out his spring.

Really, Max and Jhonny Peralta are the only starters who had bad Springs.  Jhonny hit .206 and 0 RBI.  That's not what we want out of our SS, but everyone says he will turn it around.  If not, then Worth or Sizemore will be available to "fill in" for him.

I believe that this will be a good year for the Tigers.  And I don't mean in the "hey, at least we can watch baseball again" way.  I mean I don't see any reason why this team can't make the playoffs.  The pitching seems solid.  The lineup seems to provide plenty of opportunities to score.  The defense isn't the greatest, but Jackson and Inge will give us some oohs and ahhs while everyone else should keep the runs down.

I'm not alone, but in the interest of fairness and balance I should point out that many don't see Detroit taking the AL Central by storm. 
Fangraphs:
Detroit has put together enough talent that barring a major injury to one of their top players they should be in the race for the divisional title with the other flawed contenders for the 2011 American League Central crown.
 Hardball Times (vis BaseballMusings)

  1. Chicago White Sox
  2. Minnesota Twins
  3. Detroit Tigers
  4. Cleveland Indians
  5. Kansas City Royals
 CBS Sports
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Royals
Yahoo Sports picks Detroit 2 times and Chicago 1 time (of 3 predictions)


Sports Illustrated sees a photo finish against the Twins (again).

American Spectator picks Detroit.

So, this should be quite a ride.  I don't think they will start off 35-5 again, but I don't think they will start off 0-7 either.  Ask me again in 24 hours how the first day went!

Friday, March 18, 2011

Friday!

It's Friday!  The weekend has started and it's time to look back a little.

Looking back to this afternoon- the Tigers won again.  I like the sound of that, let's hear it again.  "The Tigers won again."  Yes, it has a beautiful ring to it.  Today they beat a split squad from the Red Sox.  But with Scuturo, Youkilis, Pedroia, Veritek and Ortiz in the line up I would say it was a fair fight.

Scherzer went 4 1/3 giving up 2 runs, 2 hits, and 3 walks.  Alburquerque finished up the 5th for Max and allowed a run on 1 hit and 2 walks.  After that the Tigers' pitchers shut down the BoSox with Villarreal, Ni and Thomas pitching 4 shut out innings between them.  All of those goose eggs allowed the Tiger bats to get to work.  Buchholz must have gotten tired (or predictable) because he allowed only a solo home run until the 5th where he gave up 2 on his own and Okajima relived him and gave up 2 more.  Boesch and Raburn each homered and then Dirks put the nail in the coffin with a 2 run shot in the 9th.  Overall Detroit had 9 hits for the day.  I like baseball like this.

The Tigers have won 7 of the last 10 they have played (I know, "it's only spring training", I KNOW!).  Just to prove that "spring training" point more- guess which AL team has a higher winning per centage than Detroit.  Go ahead, guess.  If you guessed the KC Royals, well see the lady at the counter for your prize.  But still, 7 for 10!

Other things I missed this week:

In a very tough week for NPR yet another blow is delivered.  This time from within.  Garrison Keillor says that he plans to retire in 2013. It doesn't rain, but it pours for NPR!  Because I vowed not to rant in this space, I will not discuss the circus that is being created around NPR right now.  I will allow others to do it for me.

Monday was Pi Day (3/14 get it?).  So in honor of Pi Day, here is a video showing some of the wondrous aspects of Pi.


If you could drop 20000 super balls from a 4 story building, would you?  Of course not!  That would be irresponsible.  The responsible thing to do is to drop 20000 balls from a helicopter on to a parking lot!  This is pure awesome.  Since this took place in Utah, of course everyone helped clean up.


Finally, in honor of Geek Week here is a link to the best picture of Saturn moon you'll see today.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

and then there's that

I was home sick today.  I pretty much slept the day away, what a fantastic way to appreciate the first day near 70 degrees this year.  Ah well, there will be more.

While I was sleeping the Tigers were not, at least not all the way through the game.  It was the Twins that came to Joker Marchant Stadium.  I think this was the first time they have played each other this year and think that we will see many games like this between these two clubs this season.  Reading the lines it seems that Brad Penny had a decent day (5 IP with 2 BB and 2 Ks with 3 ER on 3 hits).  Furbush pitched 2 innings and struck out 4 but walked 3 (with 1 hit).  Since I was sleeping I have no idea how wild he was, but that's a little scary to me.  But no harm done (because it's spring and because no one scored).  Benoit continued to be lights out (0.00 ERA so far) and Perry picked up the win while allowing only a hit.  Offensively Inge had a solid day (3 for 4).  Cabrerra hit a double and a HR.  Raburn hit another HR while Maggs and Worth each had doubles.  All together it was enough to win 4-3.

Kurt has his take on Cabrerra's success so far this spring.  The bottom line is... a good spring = a good season in Cabrerra's world. Let's all hope that this is true!

Jason Beck shows how some pitchers make lemonade out of the lemons others are throwing.

MLive has an article on a different side of Cabrerra (no, not the drinking side).  This shows how he is trying to improve as a base runner.  That would be a good thing to see in 2011.  We've seen how he has improved defensively as he became accustomed to 1B.  Stretching singles to doubles or going 1st to 3rd is a good thing, it challenges the fielders and forces them to possibly make mistakes.

Both Lynn Henning and Matt Sussman feel that winning 90+ games will be tough for any team in the AL Central.  This is because it is a balanced and competitive division (at least so far as Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago go).

Sussman links to another list, this time of defunct logos.  Detroit has 2 on the list, the circular one that I remember from my childhood and the "tiger attacking through the D" that is very cool (and I'm painting on a wall in my basement.)

Other happenings today?  Hmmm, let's see?  Did anything of consequence happen on March 17, 2011?  Well, let's take a look.

Japan avoided nuclear catastrophe for another day.  They are still trying to pour water onto radioactive fuel in a desperate attempt to contain the radiation until the normal cooling process can be restarted.  The BBC is reporting that engineers have been able to lay the needed electrical cable for that process.  It strikes me that not enough hero worship has been directed at the people who are working this problem.  If you consider that while everyone else is being told to leave the area, these men and women are putting on plastic suits and going into the danger zone.  I remember the first responders of 9/11 and this reminds me of the same courage and resoluteness.  When you're one of the 50 people who stay in the plant, well you know that you probably aren't going to play with your grandchildren- don't you.  Yet, they go in anyway and do what they can.  Finest hour, indeed.

Oh, another little thing happened a little while ago.  The UN decided that they had had just about enough of Muammar Gaddafi.  Well, France, Britain, Lebanon and the US did.  China, Germany and Russia abstained.  I just don't know folks.  Maybe I'm a cold hearted bastard, but every news report I have heard describes the rebels in the same way.  That description is of kids playing army.  This is not Egypt or Tunisia.  I wouldn't even say that the rebels are "pro-democracy".  They are anti-Gaddafi, and who knows what that means?  The bottom line is that the rebels are getting their butts kicked very systematically by the Government Army.  Just exactly what can UN/ NATO air power do to change that?  The UN resolution allows "all necessary measures" except ground occupation.  France is chomping at the bit to strike.  I don't understand this at all.  Here are my questions right now:
  • Who are we helping?  By that I mean, what are their motives?  How do they help the US to improve?
  • What is the goal?  In other words, "Why?"  Is this about humanitarian crisis (I doubt it)?  Is it oil?  Is it to prevent a flood of immigrants going to Europe?  
  • What are the measures to be taken?  Do we use cruise missiles to destroy targets from afar?  Do we send aircraft over Libya?  Do we attack Government ground troops?  Do we send in our own troops to bolster the rebel fighters? 
  • Who wins?  Just who comes out ahead if the UN/NATO succeed in stopping the fighting?  Who gives peace keepers?  Who splits up the oil revenue?  How do you deal with Gaddafi (if he survives) once the shooting stops?
This isn't an adult stopping a fight between to boys on the playground.  You can't just say to yourself, "The fight's over I can go about my life again."  No, there are repercussions and responsibilities once you jump in. Are we prepared to deal with those?  Hmmm.

The Tiger play Boston on Friday (at 1:05).  Baseball reflects life, but it's easier to understand.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Passing thoughts from the day

Here is quick round up of stuff from March 16

Samara listened to a game and enjoyed Jim and Dan's commentary.  Money quote: “Nothing the trainer can do except come out and offer moral support.” After Max St. Pierre got hit in the replicators.

This is from a couple of days ago, but is worth going back to.  Kurt at Bless You Boys interviews Dan Dickerson (radio voice of the Tigers).  Part 1 is here.  Hopefully part 2 will be posted soon!

In moves that surprised no one.  Beck reported that Guillen and Zumaya will be on the DL when the Tigers head north.

I miss Johnny Damon.  I loved seeing him in the Old English D and I thought we would see him in Left for 2011.  Apparently he thought we would too.  MLBTradeRumors.com linked to a Twitter feed where Damon says he thought being back in Detroit was a "slam dunk".  I wish it were true.

Dave Pinto at BaseballMusings.com has done his prognostications about how often the Tigers will score.  He sees quite a few runs (5.10 runs per game).  I like that number and I hope that he is right.

I am sure that this was keeping you up at night, so I'll help put the controversy to rest.  The Tigers have the the 5th best hats in the MLB.  MLive linked to the list todaySuck it Justin Bieber!  Take your purple Yankees hat and go back to the dugout.  BTW, the Indians have the worst hats.

Off of baseball...

Netflix has decided to run with the big dogs!  They are going to publish their own content, a TV show called House of Cards.  Last fall we cut off the satellite and have gone strictly with Netflix and Hulu for mind-numbing entertainment.  It has been no problem for anyone!  I'm excited to see Netflix survive and thrive.

Can you compare an airplane to a continent?  Dominic Tierney does just that as he tries to bring the costs of the F35 jet fighter into perspective.  A thought provoking article.

Finally, a Quote for the Day from Rand Paul.  I'm not a big fan of his, but truth is truth no matter where you see it.
"Would Republicans have given Obama and his party a free pass in carrying out the exact same agenda as Bush? It's hard to imagine this being the case, given the grief Bill Clinton got from Republicans, even though his big government agenda was less ambitious than Bush's. Yet, the last Republican president got very little criticism from his own party for most of his tenure. For conservatives, there was no excuse for this,"

Sweet dreams!

Relaunch- 2011 edition

It has been a long time. Much has happened, the world continues to turn. I think about this blog often. I work on it much less often. The world goes on anyway. As I muse about Section 148 I keep coming back to the same issue- I can't keep up with just Tigers' baseball as much as I should to do a blog justice. As much as I love the Tigers, my brain just isn't wired that way. To paraphrase one of my favorite movie lines- "(My) focus needs more focus."

So, rather than go against my own nature, I'm going to go with the flow and readjust my focus.  Well, broaden it actually.  I will hit on the things that strike my fancy, my brain or my bowels- it will depend on the day and the events of the day.  You won't see rants here (at least not in my opinion), that's not my style.  You may see some commentary, both mine and stuff I see as I bounce around the web.  You may see some funny stuff (I enjoy the weirder side of life).  You may see things that I believe are touching, poignant or worth pondering.  For certain you will find things that I have learned and thought to be revealing/ interesting.

You will continue to see Tigers' stuff.  I may comment about the day's game or something.  I will certainly link to posts from the Tigers and baseball blogs that I read regularly.  Please follow the links to those sites, I get a great deal of pleasure from them and I want others to also.

This is the relaunch post.  Opening Day is only two weeks away.  (I was amazed to find out that some people think of November 15 as "Opening Day" recently.  It just goes to show how different people can be.)  A huge earthquake and tsunami have recently struck Japan and they are desperately trying to prevent a nuclear disaster as a result.  Tomorrow is St. Patrick's Day (so my daughter and I are off to buy a green scarf).


Slainte!