Friday, May 16, 2014

36 games into 2014 and what do we have to show for it? The Tigers have played 36 games. That means that they have played 2 “Innings” of baseball this year.*

That is 3 to 6 games fewer than their division rivals (due to weather and scheduled off days earlier in the season) but the season will work itself out over time. The important question is how have they played those 36 games?

Offense- Detroit has scored 176 runs (4.9 per game). That is some great baseball. And they are improving as the year develops. In the first 18 games they had 160 hits. In the next 18 games that became 179 hits. And more of those hits have gone for extra bases. The percentage of singles has dropped and the percentage doubles and homeruns has increased. Those 4.9 runs per game are good enough for 5th in MLB so far this year.

Once they get on base they are not just waiting to be hit around the base paths. The Tigers are 2nd in MLB in stolen bases. Let me repeat that, because you probably ignored it as gibberish, the Tigers are 2nd in stolen bases. They have 35. Last year they also had 35, for the entire season. Asmus’ emphasis on running seems to be paying off more often than not. It forces the other team to watch runners more closely and the Tigers are also a threat to take an extra base (single into a double or go from 1st to 3rd ) in ways that can cause the opposing defense to make errors and extend innings.

Pitching/ Defense- When your starting rotation has Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez as your top 3 you can expect to have a good year. Fister was traded for a starter (Ray) and a reliever (Krol) so Porcello had to improve his game and Smyly had to prove that he could start games. The first 18 games of the season had the entire pitching staff figuring itself out. The Starters were 6 and 6 with and ERA of 2.96 while pitching 109 1/3 innings. This is hardly a bad stretch, but it probably isn’t going to get you to the World Series. Ahh, but the next 18 games showed more of their mettle.

Over the last 18 games the Starters are 12 and 2 with an ERA of 2.62 over 110 innings. They have allowed 12 fewer hits over that time. Sanchez went to the DL with a nasty blister on his right hand. Ray was called up to take his place. Ray is 1-0 in his 2 starts with an ERA of 0.79 (1 earned run in 11 1/3 IP). He is allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning (0.97 WHIP) and the only Starter with a lower walk-rate is… Rick Porcello! Porcello has been amazing to start the season. He is the first man on the Rotation to earn 6 wins (6-1). His walk-rate is 1.21 per inning. He is getting outs, over and over again. He is going deep into the games he starts (averaging 6 1/3 IP). His ERA is only 3.22 and that is only good enough to be 5th best of the Starters! Let that sink in a moment. Porcello has an ERA of 3.22 and he is the 5th best on the team for that stat. It’s a Dream Rotation so far this year.

The Bullpen was a concern going into the season. It became more of a concern once Rondon went down with a season ending injury. As with the Starters, the Pen had to sort itself out as the Season got underway. The first 18 games were rough. In 53 IP they gave up 58 hits and 33 runs for an ERA of 5.61. A big part of that was giving up 9 homeruns in those 53 IP (1.53 HR/9). But things have settled down in the last 18 games. They have pitched 51 innings and given up only 19 earned runs. That HR/9 number has dropped to 0.53 (only 3 HR in those 18 games). They are striking out almost 1 more batter per inning than they did before also and gave up 13 fewer hits. Nathan has proven to be a solid closer. Reed has pitched well and so has Krol. The only one that can’t seem to pull it together is Coke. In a few weeks the recently signed Hanrahan will come off of the DL and someone will be removed. He is projected to be the set up man (a role the Alburquerque has been handling so far).

Defensively they are about the same as the 2013 team over all. So far the team has committed 22 errors (0.6 per game). The first 18 games saw 14 of those, so there has been quite an improvement in the last 18. The Tigers are ranked 4th of AL teams in errors and 7th in Fielding % (baseball-reference.com) so far this year. They are ranked 5th in Double Plays turned (with 89 so far). Fangraphs has them ranked 10th with a UZR/150 of -3.0 (which is slightly below average).

With great Starting pitching and decent a decent Bullpen and decent defense the Tigers have allowed only 131 runs (3.64/ game). They have outscored their opponents by 1.25 runs per game on average. In the last 18 games that equals 46 runs. They have had 11 games decided by only 1 run and are 7-4 in those games. That is living on the edge and they won’t likely keep up a .636 pace in such tight games. They are 2-1 in extra innings, also not likely to be sustainable.

Yet they have scored 6+ runs in 15 of their 36 games and only allowed 5+ runs in 12 of their games (and they won 6 of those 12). This team scores runs! It’s very exciting baseball. They are playing very well against their AL Central opponents (12-6). In fact they are playing well against all AL teams (22-9). This bodes well for the Season. There have been other years when the Tigers would crush NL teams and those victories made the difference for the Playoffs. I don’t see that being necessary this year. This team can take care of it’s own division and the rest of the AL with no problems so far. They just finished sweeping the AL East leading Orioles in Baltimore for crying out loud.

After 2 full innings of baseball, it’s a good year to be a Tigers’ fan.

 * The MLB Season is 162 games long. 162/9 = 18. So each 18 games = 1 “inning” of the Season.