4th Inning- At least it was better than the 3rd.

The Tigers played a truly terrible stretch of baseball over the last 2 months.  After a decent start and an awe-inspiring 2nd Inning the 3rd was a disaster.  The 4th was looking to be as bad as the 3rd but the Boys turned it around at the end and made it a .500 stretch of 9-9.  Fortunately for Detroit the rest of the AL Central has struggled worse than they have and so, despite a strong run from KC, the Tigers were still in 1st Place by 2 ½ games when it was all said and done.

The inning started with Toronto on June 4 as the Blue Jays completed a sweep of Detroit in Detroit.  In that series the Tigers were outscored 20-8 overall.  Then the Red Sox came to town and things seemed a little better.  The Tiges took 2 of 3, scoring 17 along the way, but that was the last taste of decent baseball for a while as the White Sox took 3 of 4 and the Royals took 3 of 4 with a series win over the Twins sandwiched in between.  Finally the Tigers left town on a 9 game road trip, starting in Cleveland, and things started to look much better.  Cleveland is where the Horrible Times started (May 19) and it appears that Cleveland is where the Horrible Times ended.  The Tigers swept the Indians to finish out the 4th Inning and salvage a 9-9 record.  But breaking down the numbers shows that it was still a rough patch of baseball.

The Lineup scored 85 runs, a big improvement over the previous 18 games.  They actually had the highest team BA of the year so far in these  18 games, hitting at a .293 rate with a significant surge in power (5 triples and 23 homeruns) for an OPS (Onbase-Plus-Slugging) per centage of .883, by far the best of the season.  Victor Martinez, JD Martinez and Cabrera continue to hit well and far.  The new SS Suarez has brought some pop with him from Toledo.  Others are still struggling (Hunter) but the runs are coming in.

The Starters improved a little.  They lasted deeper into games during this inning (114 2/3 IP) and allowed fewer hits and fewer walks (WHIP dropped from 1.46 to 1.33).  But their strikeout rate also dropped and their homerun rate basically stayed the same.  This all combined into a record of 7-8 for the Inning.  That took some pressure off of the Bullpen, but we frankly expect more out of a Rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello and Smyly.  2 Cy Young winners and a 3rd runner up to the CY should give us more than what we are seeing.  In these 18 games Verlander pitched 25 2/3 innings.  He allowed 33 hits, 21 earned runs and 11 walks.  His ERA for that period was a whopping 7.36!  He allowed 5 home runs while striking out only 20.  Scherzer was not that much better.  He pitched the same number of innings but allowed “only” 30 hits and 15 earned runs.  During this time he threw his very first complete game (a shutout of the White Sox, which was great to see!)  His ERA was only 5.26!  Sanchez truly pitched well in his 19 1/3 innings allowing only 15 hits and 6 earned runs.  Smyly was the Ace of the Inning- 19 IP with only 4 earned runs.   The trend at the end of the Inning is solid though.  All 4 pitchers had solid start of less than 2 runs allowed, a huge improvement.
The Bullpen had to step up again with the Starters still struggling.  This did not happen.  Although the BP was called upon for fewer IP during the 4th, they allowed more hits.  This pushed their WHIP up to 1.72 and their collective ERA up to 5.47.  On the positive side the K’s are coming (over 1 per inning) and the walk rate improved over the previous 18 games, but not by much.  Joe Nathan continued to struggle, but with flashes of genius mixed in to keep everyone hopeful.  Phil Coke was the same way. Hardy was brought up from Toledo and has done well so far.  Smith has not done well.  With this BP it is very hard to tell if any lead is safe, which is how we end up with improved Team batting numbers and only marginal improvements in the Win/Loss record.

Defense has not helped anyone (except opposing teams).  In the 4th Inning the Tigers committed 16 errors.  All that does is extend innings and allow rallies.  Errors accounted for 7 runs over those 18 games and there is no sign of improvement.  If there were improvement in this area then I believe the pitching would improve also (fewer pitches per inning, fewer base runners, fewer runs).
It appears that the Horrible Times are over.  Although the record was only 9-9 for this Inning the team finished strong with a 4 game winning streak.  During the last 5 games the Rotation was as solid as you can ask for and the BP only freaked us out times.  When the 18th game was finished the Tigers were still in 1st Place and their lead was only ½ game shorter than when it started.  The runs are coming (4.7/ game).  If the pitching syncs up then there is much to be excited about.  If JV and Max don’t figure out what is wrong then this could be a much more intense summer than many of us expected and no sure thing for winning the AL Central.  I remain optimistic though, based on what the last week has shown us.

The 3rd Inning (games 36 to 54): A Regression to the Mean

I guess that we knew it couldn’t last forever.  During the 2nd inning the Tigers played incredible baseball.  They won 14 of 18 games.  Their starters were 12-2.  The hit with a team BA of .288 and a OPS of .778.  They played out of their minds and we all knew it wasn’t sustainable, they had to come back to earth.  Would that be a gentle, soft landing or a plummet to the ground?


The last 18 games have corrected any ideas we may have had that this was the 1984 Tigers reincarnated.  They won only 7 of the 18 games (.389).  This was an almost complete team collapse.  Starting pitching was not good.  Relief pitching was not good.  Team batting was not good.  Fielding was not good.  This whole Inning was not good.

Starting pitchers had an ERA of 4.74.  That is almost 2 runs higher than the previous 18 games.  They gave up 13 HR in this stretch (they had given up only 14 in the previous 36 games!).  The sudden largesse for HR was combined with more walks and hits per inning (up to 1.46 from 1.09) to balloon the Earned Runs to 59 over these 18 games.  Again, the previous 36 games allowed only 68 ER total.  The bottom line for the Starters was a record of 6 and 7.
 
The Bullpen was not able to pick up the slack for the Starters.  Although the ‘Pen was better in the 3rd Inning that it was in the 1st Inning (when they sucked) it was certainly worse than during the magical 2nd Inning when they dominated.  The Bullpen’s ERA rose to 4.56.  Their WHIP came up to 1.37 and their Homeruns/ 9 jumped to 1.01 (from 0.53).  The strikeout rate dipped a little (down to   8.10 per 9 IP) but their walk rate jumped to 3.71.  That combination led to a 1 and 4 record for the ‘Pen.  You simply cannot walk that many batters as a relief corps.  And then to give up twice as many HR (6 compared to 3)?  Just a horrible combination.

The fielding had been improving as the year went on.  The error rate was dropping (0.8 to 0.4) but this has also reversed.  The 3rd Inning saw 11 errors charged against the Tigers (0.6 per game).

The bats were inconsistent.  Cabrera, Victor and Kinsler are just hitting like crazy.  Others have spurts but fade away.  This has dropped the number of runs from 101 (5.6/game) to a mere 67 (3.7/ game) in this Inning.  They actually hit more HR and more doubles.  They also took more walks.  But the strikeouts hurt them (136 Ks this Inning or 0.22/ AB, up from 0.19).  The team had hard time putting together strings of hits to generate runs.  In 9 of these games they scored 3 runs or less.  They were shutout in 2 of those and scored only 1 in two more.

So we watched a team that couldn’t prevent runs and also couldn’t score runs.  They started the Inning by completing a sweep of the Red Sox in Boston and then got swept by Cleveland.  The Rangers had their way with the Tigers and then Detroit earned a split of a four game series with a very good Oakland A’s team.  Seattle took 2 of 3 and the Blue Jays turned a pitchers’ duel into a HR Derby as the Bullpen imploded to finish the 18th game.

On the positive side, the Starters seem to be sorting themselves out.  Sanchez has pitched brilliantly in his last two games since returning from the DL.  Verlander looked much better in his last start.  Porcello looked very solid in 2 of his 3 starts this Inning.  Scherzer has not gotten his groove back yet.  Smyly isn’t inspiring confidence in me right now.  Chamberlain is solid.  Alburqueque has done well. Coke appears to be used only when it's impossible to lose a game.

Most importantly, in spite of a truly painful stretch of baseball, the Tigers are still in 1st place (with a 4 game lead).  Although they lost more games than they won, they only gave up 2.5 games of their lead.  They have most of the next 18 games at home (11 of the 18) and they normally play better at home.  This is still an excellent team and I’m excited to see them correct (again).

36 games into 2014 and what do we have to show for it? The Tigers have played 36 games. That means that they have played 2 “Innings” of baseball this year.*

That is 3 to 6 games fewer than their division rivals (due to weather and scheduled off days earlier in the season) but the season will work itself out over time. The important question is how have they played those 36 games?

Offense- Detroit has scored 176 runs (4.9 per game). That is some great baseball. And they are improving as the year develops. In the first 18 games they had 160 hits. In the next 18 games that became 179 hits. And more of those hits have gone for extra bases. The percentage of singles has dropped and the percentage doubles and homeruns has increased. Those 4.9 runs per game are good enough for 5th in MLB so far this year.

Once they get on base they are not just waiting to be hit around the base paths. The Tigers are 2nd in MLB in stolen bases. Let me repeat that, because you probably ignored it as gibberish, the Tigers are 2nd in stolen bases. They have 35. Last year they also had 35, for the entire season. Asmus’ emphasis on running seems to be paying off more often than not. It forces the other team to watch runners more closely and the Tigers are also a threat to take an extra base (single into a double or go from 1st to 3rd ) in ways that can cause the opposing defense to make errors and extend innings.

Pitching/ Defense- When your starting rotation has Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez as your top 3 you can expect to have a good year. Fister was traded for a starter (Ray) and a reliever (Krol) so Porcello had to improve his game and Smyly had to prove that he could start games. The first 18 games of the season had the entire pitching staff figuring itself out. The Starters were 6 and 6 with and ERA of 2.96 while pitching 109 1/3 innings. This is hardly a bad stretch, but it probably isn’t going to get you to the World Series. Ahh, but the next 18 games showed more of their mettle.

Over the last 18 games the Starters are 12 and 2 with an ERA of 2.62 over 110 innings. They have allowed 12 fewer hits over that time. Sanchez went to the DL with a nasty blister on his right hand. Ray was called up to take his place. Ray is 1-0 in his 2 starts with an ERA of 0.79 (1 earned run in 11 1/3 IP). He is allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning (0.97 WHIP) and the only Starter with a lower walk-rate is… Rick Porcello! Porcello has been amazing to start the season. He is the first man on the Rotation to earn 6 wins (6-1). His walk-rate is 1.21 per inning. He is getting outs, over and over again. He is going deep into the games he starts (averaging 6 1/3 IP). His ERA is only 3.22 and that is only good enough to be 5th best of the Starters! Let that sink in a moment. Porcello has an ERA of 3.22 and he is the 5th best on the team for that stat. It’s a Dream Rotation so far this year.

The Bullpen was a concern going into the season. It became more of a concern once Rondon went down with a season ending injury. As with the Starters, the Pen had to sort itself out as the Season got underway. The first 18 games were rough. In 53 IP they gave up 58 hits and 33 runs for an ERA of 5.61. A big part of that was giving up 9 homeruns in those 53 IP (1.53 HR/9). But things have settled down in the last 18 games. They have pitched 51 innings and given up only 19 earned runs. That HR/9 number has dropped to 0.53 (only 3 HR in those 18 games). They are striking out almost 1 more batter per inning than they did before also and gave up 13 fewer hits. Nathan has proven to be a solid closer. Reed has pitched well and so has Krol. The only one that can’t seem to pull it together is Coke. In a few weeks the recently signed Hanrahan will come off of the DL and someone will be removed. He is projected to be the set up man (a role the Alburquerque has been handling so far).

Defensively they are about the same as the 2013 team over all. So far the team has committed 22 errors (0.6 per game). The first 18 games saw 14 of those, so there has been quite an improvement in the last 18. The Tigers are ranked 4th of AL teams in errors and 7th in Fielding % (baseball-reference.com) so far this year. They are ranked 5th in Double Plays turned (with 89 so far). Fangraphs has them ranked 10th with a UZR/150 of -3.0 (which is slightly below average).

With great Starting pitching and decent a decent Bullpen and decent defense the Tigers have allowed only 131 runs (3.64/ game). They have outscored their opponents by 1.25 runs per game on average. In the last 18 games that equals 46 runs. They have had 11 games decided by only 1 run and are 7-4 in those games. That is living on the edge and they won’t likely keep up a .636 pace in such tight games. They are 2-1 in extra innings, also not likely to be sustainable.

Yet they have scored 6+ runs in 15 of their 36 games and only allowed 5+ runs in 12 of their games (and they won 6 of those 12). This team scores runs! It’s very exciting baseball. They are playing very well against their AL Central opponents (12-6). In fact they are playing well against all AL teams (22-9). This bodes well for the Season. There have been other years when the Tigers would crush NL teams and those victories made the difference for the Playoffs. I don’t see that being necessary this year. This team can take care of it’s own division and the rest of the AL with no problems so far. They just finished sweeping the AL East leading Orioles in Baltimore for crying out loud.

After 2 full innings of baseball, it’s a good year to be a Tigers’ fan.

 * The MLB Season is 162 games long. 162/9 = 18. So each 18 games = 1 “inning” of the Season.