Well, due to a couple of rainouts we are technically at 39 games, but I’ll buck tradition on this point. So Sparky Anderson is famously quoted as saying that you can’t tell how good or bad a baseball team is until they have played 40 games. Is that the magic number? Can’t you tell at 20 or should you wait until 60? Well, I have enough respect of sample size to resist the urge at 20 and I’m too impatient to wait until 60. Plus, this is Sparky Anderson we’re listening too here! C’mon, he led teams to championships in both leagues and is in the Hall of Fame! We are really students to his teaching here.
The Tigers stand at 22 wins and 17 losses overall. They are competitive in every sense of the word so far- they have beaten the Angels, Yankees, Twins and Red Sox in series match ups this season. They have also lost series I thought they should win (KC and Seattle in April). They are very good at Comerica Park (14-6). If they can keep that up for the season there is a lot of promise there. On the road they have held their own (8-11) but have struggled. Part of that may be due to the types of road trips they have had (11 games out west and on little rest). But Detroit typically plays much better at home than on the road. Since 2007 they are 136-107 (.560) at home and 112- 132 (.459) on the road.
The stat where the Tigers are most even with their competition is in runs scored. Detroit has scored 178 runs. Opponents have scored 178 runs! That averages out to 4.6 per game for each team. Most of the experts claimed that this would be a .500 team and the scoring bears this out with 25% of the season completed. Looking deeper I see some interesting things: The Tigers are out hitting their opponents. OPS for Detroit is .764 while opponents are around .722 The most significant differential here is in the “slugging %” aspect of OPS. Detroit is slugging at a rate of .415 while opponents are slugging at only .378. The Tigers average 18.5 total bases per game while allowing only 16.8. Yes, the Tigers have given their fans far too many reasons to complain of “squandering” runners (averaging 15.6 left on base per game vs. 14.6 for their opponents) but they do get men on base and score enough runs to win ball games.
It seems to be the run prevention side of the equation that needs the most help. The Team ERA is 4.22 and most of that is due to an under performing starting rotation. The Starters are 11-12 so far this year and have an ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.51. No one has really had a good year (although Verlander has started to show signs of pulling out of his funk). Max Scherzer, who came from Arizona, has recently been sent down to Toledo to work on things after dumping a 7.29 ERA on the mound (our old friend Galarraga has taken his place in the rotation). The Bullpen has more than held its own so far, with an ERA of only 2.49 and a WHIP of only 1.26. Zumaya has helped that by allowing only 4 walks in 24 innings so far. The ‘Pen, as a whole, has allowed only 6 homeruns in 131 2/3 innings also.
Adding to the pitchers’ woes are defensive miscues that prolong innings and add base runners. The Tigers average .8 errors per game. Their opponents only give them .5 per game. The Tigers rank dead last in Fielding % for the American League (.977) and have had 34 errors charged to them. Ryan Raburn being sent to Toledo should improve on that, but this is an area where they should be strong. Detroit seems to be either an excellent defensive team or the Bad News Bears from year to year and it hurts their chances of winning the division.
So where is this team after 40 games? As we saw above, they are competitive. They have proven that they can beat the teams that you would expect to face in October. They have proven that they can score runs. They have proven that their Bullpen can hold leads or stop the bleeding. Yet they have also shown that their starting rotation is not very strong. Their defenders are not very strong either. I believe that if either of those last two factors improves this will be a contender right down to the wire and will have a strong chance of winning the AL Central title.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
The 2nd Inning...
As I was originally shown by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales, the 162 games in a standard baseball season can be broken down into 9 innings of 18 games each. The Tigers have completed 36 games, which equal 2 innings of play. Let’s look at how they have done.
They are in 2nd place, 2 ½ games behind the Twins in the AL Central. The Tigers’ record is 20-16.
Their overall batting average for the 2nd inning is .265. Their OBP = .333. Their SLG = .422 (.265/.333/.422) Overall this shows some improvement over the 1st inning (.278/ .377/.410). They scored 80 runs in the 2nd inning. They also allowed 80 runs in the inning. Overall this team has allowed almost as many runs as it has scored all year.
The pitching for the 2nd Inning has improved over the 1st. The starting rotation pitched 99 1/3 innings and allowed 57 earned runs for an ERA of 5.16. This allowed them to win 6 and lose 7 during this inning. Their WHIP improved to 1.47 also.
The bullpen continues to dominate. They pitched 65 1/3 innings and allowed 20 earned runs (2.76 ERA). They walked only 31 and gave up only 2 homeruns during that time. There is little question that the bullpen is a significant reason for why the Tigers have won as many games as they have.
So far the Tigers are outperforming expectations. By scoring 164 runs and allowing 165 they should have a record of 18 - 18. But they have a record that is 2 games better than that (20 – 16) and are right in the fight for the pennant. Part of this is a result of how they lose: they have lost 3 games where the opposing team has scored 10+ runs and none of those games were close. They have also lost 0-8, which contributes to the skewing of the numbers toward mediocrity. Part of it is also that they are developing a reputation for coming from behind to win late in the game- this usually means a close final score that doesn’t show the heart of the team in a final score.
This inning the Tigers beat Minnesota, New York and LA. They also lost to Minnesota in a sweep at Target field (their worst series so far). This team can compete with the best teams in the AL. They must figure out the Twins in Minnesota, but they are certainly capable of winning against any team on the schedule.
The bottom line is that this is a very fun team to watch and will be long into the fall.
They are in 2nd place, 2 ½ games behind the Twins in the AL Central. The Tigers’ record is 20-16.
Their overall batting average for the 2nd inning is .265. Their OBP = .333. Their SLG = .422 (.265/.333/.422) Overall this shows some improvement over the 1st inning (.278/ .377/.410). They scored 80 runs in the 2nd inning. They also allowed 80 runs in the inning. Overall this team has allowed almost as many runs as it has scored all year.
The pitching for the 2nd Inning has improved over the 1st. The starting rotation pitched 99 1/3 innings and allowed 57 earned runs for an ERA of 5.16. This allowed them to win 6 and lose 7 during this inning. Their WHIP improved to 1.47 also.
The bullpen continues to dominate. They pitched 65 1/3 innings and allowed 20 earned runs (2.76 ERA). They walked only 31 and gave up only 2 homeruns during that time. There is little question that the bullpen is a significant reason for why the Tigers have won as many games as they have.
So far the Tigers are outperforming expectations. By scoring 164 runs and allowing 165 they should have a record of 18 - 18. But they have a record that is 2 games better than that (20 – 16) and are right in the fight for the pennant. Part of this is a result of how they lose: they have lost 3 games where the opposing team has scored 10+ runs and none of those games were close. They have also lost 0-8, which contributes to the skewing of the numbers toward mediocrity. Part of it is also that they are developing a reputation for coming from behind to win late in the game- this usually means a close final score that doesn’t show the heart of the team in a final score.
This inning the Tigers beat Minnesota, New York and LA. They also lost to Minnesota in a sweep at Target field (their worst series so far). This team can compete with the best teams in the AL. They must figure out the Twins in Minnesota, but they are certainly capable of winning against any team on the schedule.
The bottom line is that this is a very fun team to watch and will be long into the fall.
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