Monday, May 31, 2010

The Tigers’ Batting Wonders and Woes…

The Tigers have taken their lumps for stranding runners and not supporting some of their pitchers of the past few weeks. At almost the same time they have had some dramatic come-from-behind rallies to win games late. They have scored 220 runs in the first 49 games (averaging 4.5). This includes 4 shutouts and 7 games where they have scored 8 or more runs. Baseball-Reference.com lists them as 4th in OBS at .762 and 4th in Batting Average at .269.

But this Tigers’ team is split as far as performance goes: there are the Top 6 batters and the Bottom 3. The Top 6 are: Jackson, Damon, Ordonez, Cabrera, Boesch, and Guillen. These guys are hitting and scoring well. Through Sunday’s game (5/30) the Top 6 have scored 153 of the 220 runs (70%). They also have 144 of the 208 RBI this year (69%). “But wait a minute! Of course they score more runs, they have more opportunities because they get up to bat more often.” Well, although there is truth to that it doesn’t explain it all. The Top 6 have accumulated 1023 Plate Appearances (PA) which is 58%. Of much more importance is what they are doing when they get to the plate, which is to hit.

The BA for the Top 6 is .320. Yes, the average for the Top 6 Batters is .320. Led by Cabrera’s .352 but the worst(?) of them is Damon’s .283. And when Damon isn’t hitting he is taking walks. He leads the team with 14.1% walk rate. The On Base Percentage (OBP) for the Top 6 is .379 and that is pulled down by Boesch’s OBP of a mere .345 (he tends to strike out 20% of the times he goes to the plate). Of course the times Boesch goes to the plate he hits it. His Batting Avg for Balls In Play (BABIP) is .378! He bashes it hard. Boesch’s Slugging % (SLG) is .585 (second only to Cabrera’s on the team). The Top 6’s SLG is .513.

The point I’m making with all of these stats is that the Top 6 Batters are not just scoring most of the runs because they are in the first 6 slots. They are scoring the runs because they are getting on base and hitting for average and power. If the Top 6 were on their own they would be the best hitting team in the American League. The Yankees are the best overall at .811 OPS and the Tigers’ Top 6 is at .892.

This begs the question, “Why is Detroit chasing the Twins to win the weakest division in the American League?” Well, aside from pitching woes there are the Bottom 3 spots in the lineup. The Bottom 3 are: Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. These guys have been a pitcher’s dream so far this season. Combined they are hitting .202. They are not making up for it with walks either (combined 7.56% walk rate) and they are not hitting for power either. The SLG for the Bottom 3 is a weak .331.

I don’t know what the answer to this problem is. The worst starter is Laird (.168 BA with a .243 SLG), but he has been a defensive asset, but he is only throwing out 31% of the base stealers so far this year (9 of 29 attempts). Last year he was throwing base runners out at a 42% clip- which was the best in the League. He replacement is supposed to be Alex Avila but, aside from being a Lefty, Avila is no different. Avila is batting .153 with a .278 SLG. So there really isn’t much to do there. Adam Everett is hitting .189 and SLG .257. Santiago often replaces Everett, but Leyland doesn’t believe Ramon can play full time effectively and his limited numbers are not a huge improvement. Brandon Inge is the best of the Bottom 3 with a .229 BA and SLG of .417 (including 6 HR). Still, Inge strikes out 25% of the time. His fielding is certainly above average. Baseball-Reference.com puts shows him saving 21 runs above the average 3B this year, 2nd best in the AL. I just don’t see replacing Inge with a superior player right now.

The season not quite 1/3 of the way done. Trade deadlines are coming up and I trust that Dombrowski is planning on working something. If Detroit plays well through June they should be buyers and he might find someone. I would start with Shortstop. Again, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Everett’s defense is actually projected to cost Detroit 19 runs more than the average SS this year!

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Not a good week...

This past week has not been a good one for the Tigers. They went 1-4 (with 2 off days). Well, actually they seemed to have more than 2 “off” days, but there were 2 days they weren’t scheduled.

They wrapped up their last West Coast road trip against the Mariners before coming home to start a 4 game series against the A’s.

For one of those reasons that make no sense the Tigers cannot seem to beat the Mariners. The Mariners have not been a good team in 2010. They have good pitching and don’t allow that many runs (189 through the Tigers’ series or 4.1 per game) but they score even fewer (163 or 3.5 per game). With Verlander and Bonderman pitching for Detroit you might think that things look pretty good for a short series win. Yet the Mariners were able to score 5 runs in each game while the Tigers scored only 3 and then 4. Bondo actually pitched a great game, but Ryan Perry didn’t, giving up 5 hits and 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning to turn an apparent 4-1 win into a definite 4-5 loss. In fact, this was not a good week for Ryan Perry at all, but we’ll get to that later. So the Tigers again gave the Mariners a reason to feel good about themselves. So far the Tigers are 1-4 against Seattle this year, providing the Mariners with almost 20% of their wins for the year.

After losing to Seattle (and presumably stocking up on coffee) the Tigers headed home to face the A’s. Now the A’s are a decent team. They are contending in the West and have some good players. The Tigers had beaten them in a short series last week. Now they had a 4 game series here in Detroit. The Tigers are very good, strong at home (14-6 starting the series). Well, things didn’t work out exactly as hoped for. Willis pitched 5 1/3 innings of very interesting baseball, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and one walk. The Bullpen took over and, for the second time this week Perry could not get it done, allowing 2 runs on a hit and a walk (Ni allowing at least one of the runs to score). Even with newly-minted father Miguel Cabrara hitting 3 home runs the Tigers couldn’t get Willis the win. The next night (Friday) the Tigers bats simply didn’t show up (5 hits and 0 runs). Porcello pitched a pretty good game (2 earned runs in 6 1/3 on 7 hits and 2 walks). The Pen allowed 4 runs in another weak showing, but with 0 runs on the Tigers’ side of the scoreboard it didn’t really matter much.

This raises a question for me about the pitchers- can we have good showings from both the Rotation and the Bullpen in the same week? This week the Rotation had one weak outing (Verlander on Tuesday) but other than that Bonderman, Willis, Porcello and Scherzer each pitched well with 3 or fewer runs allowed. This is the dominant rotation that we have been begging for all year! Here it is! The Rotation’s ERA for the week was 2.84! Their WHIP was 1.17. This stuff can win some ball games! Before the week started the Tigers’ Bullpen was lights-out. Their ERA was 2.32 and their WHIP was 1.23. It has climbed to 2.85 and 1.27. Add the 2 losses (both, unfortunately, assigned to Perry but he had some help in giving them away) and we see a bad week. I’m hoping that this was simply that- a bad week- and not some horrible Greek-economy-type slide toward failure. I say this because I’m not sure where the bailout might come from.

Related to dominance of the Rotation- Dontrelle Willis was Designated for Assignment last night to make room for Max Scherzer. Dontrelle seems to be the happiest (and luckiest) pitcher in baseball but his on again- off again relationship with the strike zone had finally become too much for Dombrowski. With Scherzer having figured out his issues down in Toledo the Tigers needed to make some room on the roster. Galarraga had pitched well enough to stay, so Willis was DFA’d. I must say that I admire what the Tigers have done for Willis. Something happened inside his head and he lost his game. Unfortunately this happed right after Dombrowski signed him to a 3 year worth $29 million. The Tigers gave him every opportunity to turn it around (for both their own interest and his), but ultimately they decided that they could do better.

The bats remain a story of split personality. The top 5 are the best in baseball (in my opinion). The bottom 4 have been terrible. Overall the OPS is .755 for the last 13 games, but the squandering by the bottom has been epic. Inge is hitting .215 and that is the best of the group. Everett is .189 and Laird/ Avila is .154 It is a fair question as to how long these guys can hit like that and stay on the lineup card. I don’t know the answers to this problem, but there has to be a SS or Catcher out there who can hit better than what we have with enough defense to make the outs. If something doesn’t happen with these guys soon then Willis may have only been the first to be shown the door.

So, as Memorial Day starts off the summer season here in Michigan we have a team that is going through some changes and challenges. Their Bullpen slipped but their Rotation stepped up. The bats have been slumbering but woke up in a big way today to support Scherzer. The team is 26-23 and sits 3 games behind the Twins. They are certainly in the race. This upcoming week they finish the 4th game with the A’s and then host the Indians for 3 before going to KC for 3. These are not good teams, these are teams that Detroit should dominate. This should be a good week to be a Tigers’ fan.
Go Tigers!

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

40 Games into it...

Well, due to a couple of rainouts we are technically at 39 games, but I’ll buck tradition on this point. So Sparky Anderson is famously quoted as saying that you can’t tell how good or bad a baseball team is until they have played 40 games. Is that the magic number? Can’t you tell at 20 or should you wait until 60? Well, I have enough respect of sample size to resist the urge at 20 and I’m too impatient to wait until 60. Plus, this is Sparky Anderson we’re listening too here! C’mon, he led teams to championships in both leagues and is in the Hall of Fame! We are really students to his teaching here.

The Tigers stand at 22 wins and 17 losses overall. They are competitive in every sense of the word so far- they have beaten the Angels, Yankees, Twins and Red Sox in series match ups this season. They have also lost series I thought they should win (KC and Seattle in April). They are very good at Comerica Park (14-6). If they can keep that up for the season there is a lot of promise there. On the road they have held their own (8-11) but have struggled. Part of that may be due to the types of road trips they have had (11 games out west and on little rest). But Detroit typically plays much better at home than on the road. Since 2007 they are 136-107 (.560) at home and 112- 132 (.459) on the road.

The stat where the Tigers are most even with their competition is in runs scored. Detroit has scored 178 runs. Opponents have scored 178 runs! That averages out to 4.6 per game for each team. Most of the experts claimed that this would be a .500 team and the scoring bears this out with 25% of the season completed. Looking deeper I see some interesting things: The Tigers are out hitting their opponents. OPS for Detroit is .764 while opponents are around .722 The most significant differential here is in the “slugging %” aspect of OPS. Detroit is slugging at a rate of .415 while opponents are slugging at only .378. The Tigers average 18.5 total bases per game while allowing only 16.8. Yes, the Tigers have given their fans far too many reasons to complain of “squandering” runners (averaging 15.6 left on base per game vs. 14.6 for their opponents) but they do get men on base and score enough runs to win ball games.

It seems to be the run prevention side of the equation that needs the most help. The Team ERA is 4.22 and most of that is due to an under performing starting rotation. The Starters are 11-12 so far this year and have an ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.51. No one has really had a good year (although Verlander has started to show signs of pulling out of his funk). Max Scherzer, who came from Arizona, has recently been sent down to Toledo to work on things after dumping a 7.29 ERA on the mound (our old friend Galarraga has taken his place in the rotation). The Bullpen has more than held its own so far, with an ERA of only 2.49 and a WHIP of only 1.26. Zumaya has helped that by allowing only 4 walks in 24 innings so far. The ‘Pen, as a whole, has allowed only 6 homeruns in 131 2/3 innings also.

Adding to the pitchers’ woes are defensive miscues that prolong innings and add base runners. The Tigers average .8 errors per game. Their opponents only give them .5 per game. The Tigers rank dead last in Fielding % for the American League (.977) and have had 34 errors charged to them. Ryan Raburn being sent to Toledo should improve on that, but this is an area where they should be strong. Detroit seems to be either an excellent defensive team or the Bad News Bears from year to year and it hurts their chances of winning the division.

So where is this team after 40 games? As we saw above, they are competitive. They have proven that they can beat the teams that you would expect to face in October. They have proven that they can score runs. They have proven that their Bullpen can hold leads or stop the bleeding. Yet they have also shown that their starting rotation is not very strong. Their defenders are not very strong either. I believe that if either of those last two factors improves this will be a contender right down to the wire and will have a strong chance of winning the AL Central title.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

The 2nd Inning...

As I was originally shown by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales, the 162 games in a standard baseball season can be broken down into 9 innings of 18 games each. The Tigers have completed 36 games, which equal 2 innings of play. Let’s look at how they have done.

They are in 2nd place, 2 ½ games behind the Twins in the AL Central. The Tigers’ record is 20-16.

Their overall batting average for the 2nd inning is .265. Their OBP = .333. Their SLG = .422 (.265/.333/.422) Overall this shows some improvement over the 1st inning (.278/ .377/.410). They scored 80 runs in the 2nd inning. They also allowed 80 runs in the inning. Overall this team has allowed almost as many runs as it has scored all year.

The pitching for the 2nd Inning has improved over the 1st. The starting rotation pitched 99 1/3 innings and allowed 57 earned runs for an ERA of 5.16. This allowed them to win 6 and lose 7 during this inning. Their WHIP improved to 1.47 also.
The bullpen continues to dominate. They pitched 65 1/3 innings and allowed 20 earned runs (2.76 ERA). They walked only 31 and gave up only 2 homeruns during that time. There is little question that the bullpen is a significant reason for why the Tigers have won as many games as they have.

So far the Tigers are outperforming expectations. By scoring 164 runs and allowing 165 they should have a record of 18 - 18. But they have a record that is 2 games better than that (20 – 16) and are right in the fight for the pennant. Part of this is a result of how they lose: they have lost 3 games where the opposing team has scored 10+ runs and none of those games were close. They have also lost 0-8, which contributes to the skewing of the numbers toward mediocrity. Part of it is also that they are developing a reputation for coming from behind to win late in the game- this usually means a close final score that doesn’t show the heart of the team in a final score.

This inning the Tigers beat Minnesota, New York and LA. They also lost to Minnesota in a sweep at Target field (their worst series so far). This team can compete with the best teams in the AL. They must figure out the Twins in Minnesota, but they are certainly capable of winning against any team on the schedule.

The bottom line is that this is a very fun team to watch and will be long into the fall.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

The Great Ernie Harwell has left us

Ernie Harwell (1918-2010) passed away tonight.  He has been fighting cancer of the bile duct for much of the past year.  He died at home in Novi, MI with his wife Lulu at his side.

Harwell was the voice of the Tigers for many years (1960-2002).  He was teamed up with Paul Carey from 1973-1991 and so it was their two voices that I associate most with the Tigers as a kid.

Here are some links...
Wikipedia
The Detroit News
The Freep
Tigers.com

and some of his greatest lines (at least the ones I remember from my days listen to the radio):

"He stood there like a house by the side of the road." (when a batter watched a strike go by)
"He was called out for excessive window shopping!" (same)
"Two for the price of one!" (when a double play was turned)
"It's loooooooong gone!" (a home run)
"That was caught by a fan from (pick any city/town in Michigan)" (when a ball was hit foul)

One of the greatest aspects of Ernie's style was that he was a lover of the game, not so much the home team.  He never criticized players or umpires.  He simply told his listeners what was happening on the field so that we knew.  He was certainly a fan of the Detroit Tigers, but he never let that get in the way of complementing a good play by the other team.  He cared about the players and everyone he met (according to those who were around him).  He helped out other broadcasters and journalists (even some bloggers as they came into the picture).

Ernie was to receive the Vin Scully Lifetime Achievement Award for broadcasting tomorrow (5/5/10).  Al Kaline was going to represent Ernie at the ceremony and now will accept it for him posthumously.

There aren't many broadcaster like Ernie anymore.  He was missed when he finally left the booth a couple of years ago.  But it will always be his voice I hear when I remember growing up as a Tigers' fan in Michigan.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

April in the D...

Best pitcher for April:
ERA Starter = Willis 3.13/ WHIP = Bonderman 1.35/ xFIP = Verlander 4.23 (26 K’s)
ERA Reliever = Valverde 0.75/ WHIP = Valverde 0.75/ xFIP= Zumaya 2.39 (0 walks!)

Best hitter for April
BA = Jackson .364/ OBP = Damon .431/ OPS = Cabrera 1.042/ BABIP = Jackson .530

Record for the month = 14 and 10
Series wins vs: KC, CLE, MIN,
Series losses vs: KC, SEA
Series split vs: LAA
Record vs East 0-0
Record vs Central 8-4
Record vs West 6-6

After the month of April the Tigers are sitting in 2nd place in the AC. They have a 14 and 10 record and accomplished this in spite of starting the season on the road and having an 11 game road trip out west to play Seattle and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim before going to Texas. They managed to split the road with a 7-7 record. So far at home they have continued to show the dominance they have displayed in the past with a 7-3 record.
The beginning of the season showed a number of come from behind wins. Since then they have continued to win close games. The Tigers score an average of 4.9 runs per game and allow 4.5. In fact they are currently outperforming the Pythagorean Expectation by one game. I would give much of this credit to the Bullpen.
The Relievers have carried the Starters for the first month. Zumaya, Coke and Valverde have been able to shut down opposing lineups extremely effectively. Ni and Perry have also been huge so far this season. The only one who has not been steller has been Thomas, but he gets props for making an emergency start when Willis was sick and giving a surprising 3 innings allowing the bats to carry it through for a win.
The Starters have all struggled in some way. Verlander has not been dominating so far (just like last April). Porcello may be having a “sophomore slump” as his ERA is over 8.00 and his WHIP is 1.91. Yet his xFIP (a measure of how a pitcher is doing on the things he can control) is only 4.25. It does seem that everything batters make contact on from him becomes a hit- I doubt that continues. The biggest surprises have been Bonderman and Willis. Both have pitched well, Willis has allowed only 8 runs in 23 innings (3.13 ERA). That is the best ERA in the Starting Rotation!
On the offensive side there have been some great starts so far this year.
Austin Jackson has started his Tigers’ career in a Rookie of the Year pace with a .364 BA and a .917 OPS. Half of what he makes contact with falls for a hit (.530 BABIP). He is fast! He had 6 doubles, 2 triples and 5 stolen bases.
Johnny Damon, batting #2, started slowly but is more than making up for it to close out the month. He is batting .329 with a .890 OPS along with a walk rate of 14.7% (15).
Maggs is picking up where he left off last September with an average of .303 and a OPS of .906 (6 doubles + 4 home runs)! All of that extra base power has allowed him to drive in 18 RBI this month!
And if Maggs can’t get them home than Cabrera will. Cabrera seems to be a man on a mission so far this year. He has 25 RBI and has scored 16 runs himself. His BA is .344 and his OBS is 1.04! He has already drawn 3 intentional walks, expect that to rise as the year goes on.
Carlos Guillen was off to a hot start until he was injured. He was batting .311 with a OPS of .834 with 8 RBI in the first 16 games. He was replaced by a new guy, Brennan Boesch from Toledo. Brennan has stepped right in and provided hit .261 with an OPS of .813 (7 RBI) in the 6 games he played.
The bottom ½ of the order (Inge, Sizemore, Laird and Everett) have not hit nearly as well as the top ½ so far. Inge and Sizemore have kept their BA over .250 but Laird and Everett haven’t managed that yet.
Looking forward I continue to see that this team will be very competitive in the AL Central. The starting pitching will improve. I don’t know if the bullpen can continue to perform at this level (Zumaya is an injury waiting to happen). I believe that the batters can continue to perform at this level. Except for Jackson the top of the order is proven over many years to be solid.
The rest of May sees the Twins and the Indians on the road. Then the Yankees and Red Sox come to Detroit, along with a 2 game series with the White Sox. Then it’s another West Coast road trip to Oakland, LAD and Seattle before finishing the month at home against the Oakland A’s.



*all individual batting data from Fangraphs

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Games 7 & 8: Tigers vs. Royals

Game 7
Game 8

Game 7 stunk.  The Tigers lost 10-5 on terrible defense and not enough offense.  The pitching was not all that great either (15 hits allowed plus 5 walks).  Meh, there's nothing to see here (or much to write about either).

Game 8 was another example of how exciting this Tigers' team can be.  The pattern is well established by now- 1) don't get any hits against the opposing starter, but... 2) show patience at the plate (forcing the other team's starter to wear himself out) and wait for the bullpen to come into the game 3) punish the opposing bullpen 4) Profit!!!

This afternoon the Tigers were down 5-0 when they came up to bat in the 7th.  Thereafter started a hit parade: Carlos Guillen struck out, Inge walked, Laird (!) doubles (Inge scores 1-5).  That is the last of Bannister the starter, Colon comes in to stop the bleeding.  Scott Sizemore doubles in Laird (2-5).  Sanitago pops up for the 2nd out.  Ajax doubles in Sizemore (3-5).  That was it for Colon, pitcher #3 is Hughes.  Damon singles, Ajax to 3rd.  Maggs walks, bases loaded.  Cabrera takes a bases loaded walk, Ajax scores (4-5).  Carlos is back up again and doubles, Damon scores and Magglio scores (6-5).  Inge grounds out for the 3rd out. 

Count them up and you will find 4 doubles in there.You'll find another bases loaded walk (just like Sunday).  You'll see rookies (Ajax and Sizemore) getting big hits along with the vets (even Laird).  If there is one thing this team can do it is string together hits and walks for big rallies.  That 7th inning was the 4th big inning in this young season, not to mention the 5th time that they have come from behind in the first 8 games.

This stuff is awesome to watch (or recreate later if you're working during the game).  I don't know how long it can last.  The Tigers have only played against teams that they should be beating (Royals and Indians).  That means that they should not be in a position to need to come from behind so often (or at least that's what it SHOULD mean).  Once they start playing better teams this formula may not be sustainable, but for right now we know that this 2010 team is never out of the game.  (Year of the Tiger! indeed)

As of right now the Tigers are in 1st place (tied with the Twins).  One more game against the Royals and then it's off to Seattle for the weekend.

Games 4,5 & 6. Sweep!

Game 4 (Home Opener) Cleveland 2 Tigers 5
Game 5 Cleveland 2 Tigers 4
Game 6 Cleveland 8 Tigers 9

Tigers sweep! 

(there was a lot more written but it was sucked into the Ether.  It's gone, but the Wins stay on the record books.)  Maggs and Cabrera are the heros.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Games 2 and 3: Tigers at Royals

Wednesday night Tigers 2- Royals 3
Thursday afternoon Tigers 7 - Royals 3

After last night's game lasted until almost midnight and then playing an afternoon game today it's time for some catch up here in Section 148.

Last night started out with Scherzer and Hochevar going head to head in a pitching duel.  Scherzer was almost perfect through 5 2/3.  He didn't allow a hit or a walk until then (although he did hit two batters).  Flirting with perfection through almost 6 innings SHOULD be enough.  But as good as Scherzer was Hochevar was almost as good, neither team could get a run across until KC got one off of Fu Te Ni in the 7th.  It looked like Detroit would lose 1-0 until Miguel Cabrera drove one juussst over the wall and hitting the Right Field foul pole to tie the game up in the Tigers' 9th to send it to extra innings.  Both teams tried to score in the 10th but failed to make it the last 90'.  Then in the 11th Detroit put a series of singles together off of Kyle Farnsworth (I never did like him much as a Tiger, but I love to see him pitch for the other guys!).  Finally Don Kelly was waved home from 2nd on a not-very-deep single to Left Field, testing the arm of Posednik.  Pods failed that test miserably- I mean Kelly should have been out at 3rd much less getting all of the way Home!  But he scored and the Tigers took the lead 2-1 going into the bottom of the 11th.  It was time to bring in our shiny new Closer...

I hope you've had the chance to see Valverde, aka "Papa Grande/ The Big Potato" enter a game from the bullpen.  It's as though you got a ticket to the walrus show at Sea World.  He steps up to the gate leading onto the field.  He looks to his left- and spits a stream of water on to the warning track.  He looks to his right- and spits another stream.  Then he looks straight ahead and spits out the rest.  Apparently he does this every time he comes into a game.

So our Walrus makes his entrance- and gives up a home run to the first batter he faces.  Game tied.  He then continues his mis-adventures until the winning run comes across on an error by Sizemore.  And that was that.  As I said in last night's game thread at BYB: "This is not how you make fans in your new home!"

Today (Thursday) was another debut.  It was Dontrelle Willis' coming out party.  He made his first Big League appearance in almost a year and nobody was sure what he would do. 

Well he did pretty well.  He pitched 6 innings, allowing only 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks.  You have probably guessed that he had some help to pull that line off- the Tigers made 3 double plays behind him to keep him in the game.  Not a great performance, but we'll take it.

Early on the Tigers continued to struggle at the plate, with only 1 run first 7 innings.  But Cabrera came through again with ANOTHER home run (a 3 run shot in the 8th) to give them the lead.  He pushed in another run as the Tigers batted around in the 9th.

MVP of the series is no question- Miguel Cabrera.  He had 8 hits in 14 (.571) including 2 home runs for 7 RBI (of the total 17 runs the Tigers scored).  His SLG is currently 1.600!

Tomorrow is the Home Opener for Detroit!  I hope that you can find some place to enjoy it.  Game time is 1:05.  Rick Porcello has been given the honor of the start for Detroit.  The Cleveland Indians will do their best to spoil it.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Game 2: Tigers at Royals

Game Day Link

Tonight is Max Scherzer's Tiger debut.  The word on the internet is that Scherzer is a top tier pitcher and Detroit did well to get a hold of him.  I'm sure not going to doubt wiser people than me, but his Spring numbers did not impress me (I know, "Spring stats don't mean anything" but that's all I have).  Apparently Max decided about half way through Spring Training that he needed to focus more, so he started approaching the games like he would a regular season game.  Here is what Tom Gage wrote in this morning's DetNews
What was learned in spring training is that for Max to become SuperMax, if indeed he can, he has to be all in, all the time.
He can't get by with half intensity. It has to be max for Max.
He can't get by approaching any outing as less than a huge outing.
His entire spring training turned around when he stopped treating it like spring training. He knows himself well enough to realize that unless he's into every outing 100 percent, he's not himself.

He goes up against Luke Hochevar.  Hochevar has a slightly higher WHIP (1.47) and a much higher ERA (5.88).  Hopefully the Tigers can take advantage of Royals pitching tonight as they did on Opening Day.

The game starts at 8:10 pm EST but because it "April in the D" we can't watch the game until the Red Wings game is over.  Normally if there was a conflict the Tigers would be bumped to FSN+ but they have the Pistons there, so we have to wait.  Maybe I can watch American Idol and a Tigers' game.  The game will be re-broadcast at midnight in its entirety on FSN Detroit.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Tigers 8 - Royals 4, Game 1 is done...

We saw two of last year's best pitchers to start things off in KC today: Zack Greinke (2009 AL Cy Young winner) against Justin Verlander (3rd place in the 2009 Cy Young voting). 

Verlander went 5 innings and gave up 4 runs with 1 walk and 6 strike outs.  Greinke went 6 innings, giving up 1 run with 1 walk and 4 strike outs.   But there is only 1 Zack Greinke and after the 6th he was done. 

The difference in this game was the difference between the bullpens.  Detroit's was solid, KC's was not. 

Fangraph of the game.

After JV was done Zumaya went out and threw a 7 pitch 6th inning.  Coke took over for him and got 2 in the 7th. Perry came on, finished the 7th and took care of the 8th.  Valverde came in for the 9th and there was some "questionable" fielding but got out of the inning without allowing a run.  The Detroit 'pen only allowed 3 hits in the last 4 innings.

KC's bullpen allowed 4 hits and 5 runs in the first 1/3 of an inning after Greinke left the game to give Detroit a lead they would not give up.  Austin Jackson not only got an RBI double on his first Major League hit and later scored, he also gunned down a run at the plate in the 7th inning from Center Field.  Johnny Damon was 2 for 5 with 2 RBI and 2 runs scored.  Ordonez had a double and scored a run, Cabrera had 2 RBI and a run scored.

It was a solid win for the Tigers.  A great way to start the year.

Tuesday is an off day and then we get to see Max Scherzer take the mound on Wednesday evening (8:10 start time in Michigan).

Opening Day 2010

Tigers at Royals

4/5/2010

Here it is!  Opening Day for a brand new season!  The Roster has been whittled down to 25 men.  Names we have known for years are gone (Granderson, Polanco, Rodney, Robertson).  New ones are now on the team (Sizemore, Jackson, Valverde).

No one really knows how well they will do (the individuals or the team).  For today they are just as good as the eventual World Champions- for all that we know they will BE the eventual World Champions. 

In order to do that they will have to beat weaker teams on a regular basis, and today's Royals should be one of those weaker teams.  If there is anything we should understand after 2009 is that EVERY game counts, even the ones played in April and May.  Just one more win along the way would have avoided Game 163 and the Tigers would have won the AL Central Pennant. 

I believe that the 2010 Tigers can do that.  Ordonez should be much better than last year (now that his wife is healthy).  Inge has been to the repair shop and his knees appear to be strong again.  Cabrera has apparently faced his demons and should focus better.  Laird should bat better (more to his norm) also.

What I hope, more than anything, is that those players who are still here from Game 163 will be angry.  They had the prize taken from them at the last moment.  I'm not trying to take anything away from what the Twins did, they earned it- but the Tigers should be pissed about losing like that.  And they have to take that energy and focus it. 

I have read the story of the 1968 Tigers' team.  They too had lost a chance at the post season taken away on the last day (in 1967).  They came back angry and determined.  They won the last true AL pennant and then the World Series that year. 

Others may think I'm crazily optimistic, but I see a lot of talent on this 2010 team and I believe they can do this.  Starting in about 10 minutes we're about to find out!

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Our long wait is over! The Tigers have played baseball again!

Florida State College 1, Detroit Tigers 13

It was a beautiful sunny day in West Michigan today, but there are at least 6" of snow on the ground and nobody could play baseball here.  But, in Florida they can and today- for the first time since Game #163- the Tigers played together against another team.  And they won!  Perhaps you believe that a MLB team should beat a Division II college team (and you'd be right) but it wasn't that long ago that no one could guarantee that. 

I don't want to insult anyone's intelligence, but I feel I have to say this: this is only Spring Training (and this game wasn't even THAT- it was a scrimmage) so we can't read much into what happened today.  But OMG- they played baseball today!

Phil Coke started things out (and his role as starter or reliever is one of the questions this spring).  He pitched 2 innings with 0 runs and only 1 hit and 1 walk against 3 strike outs.  A nice solid outing.  No matter what his job is during the season, I hope we see a LOT more of this from Coke. 
Eddie Bonine came in and also pitched 2 innings of 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 walks, and 1 K.
Someone wearing 62 also pitched 2 innings with 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks and 2 Ks.
Joel Zumaya came on in the 7th and seemed to bring back the scary Joel.  1 hit, 1 walk and one HBP loaded the bases.  But he worked way out of it with 2 strike outs and a fly out with 0 runs allowed.
Fu-Te Ni pitched the 8th and was perfect.
#70 finished it off in the 9th allowing 1 run on 3 hits but did have 2 Ks and a fly out.

Offensively it looks like it was noobs that scored the runs.  Ryan Striebly scored 3 runs, Brennan Boesch scored 2, Casper Wells scored 1, as did Jeff Larish, Brent Dlugach and Don Kelly.  Some of the regulars crossed the plate also (Ordonez scored 1, Cabrera scored 1, Thomas scored 2).

Guillen knocked in 2, as did #75 (whoever that was).

Overall it was an impressive day for the Tigers!  We now know that they can beat up on smallish college opponents.  BTW Al Kaline's grandson Colin Kaline, had 2 hits for the FSC Moccasins.  The only downside was that Boesch played a fly ball off of his face and needed stitches as a result.


For, lo, the winter is past,
The rain is over and gone;
The flowers appear on the earth;
The time of the singing of birds is come,
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.

 (thanks to Lee Panas for posting Ernie Harwell's classic)

Monday, February 15, 2010

Pitchers and catchers report...

It is only 4 days until the pitchers and catchers report to Lakeland, FL for the first formal day of Spring Training!  The winter has been cold, long and confusing (for many of us Tiger fans).  There has been much written and discussed since Game 163 last October.  Why did DD trade Ganderson and E. Jackson?  Who on earth are A. Jackson and Scherzer?  Can Bonderman and Zumaya make comebacks this year?

I can't pretend to know the answers to those questions.  The only service I can provide is to supply some links to what's out there.

  • Firstly there is news that Jair Jurrjens may have injured his shoulder.  He has an MRI scheduled.  I know that he isn't a Tiger anymore, but they traded him for Cabrera so it's relevant. (hat tip to Baseball Musings).
  • Along those same lines, an (ex) Tiger much closer to our psyche, Curtis Granderson is "able to" move to Left Field. (Freep)
  • Which of course brings us to the Johnny Damon saga/ drama.  If you have been living under a rock there has been a great deal of ink spilled about Damon coming to Detroit (or Atlanta, or Chicago- it all depends on the days' rumor).  Personally, I think that Detroit should sign Damon.  He is a LH bat who has a career OPS of .794 and a WAR of 3.0 last year.  He is a proven lead off hitter too.  With both Granderson and Polanco gone they need a proven hitter at the top of the order.  And, for what it's worth, they way he stole 2nd and 3rd base in the World Series last year proved to me that he has brains.  
  • There is a great deal of debate on whether or not Detroit is struggling with money or not.  Personally I don't believe what we are seeing is a fire sale.  Detroit ponied up good money for Valverde. They got younger (and refilled their system) at the very least.  Andrew Jackson appears to be for real.  Scherzer looks to be a solid replacement for Edwin Jackson (who I believe was a one-hit-wonder).
With Spring Training starting this week there will be more stories coming out, plus rumor and innuendo.  For now we can simply dream of green grass, worn leather and dust.  The long winter is almost over!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Reading tea-leaves...

That is pretty much all that we have to go on right now. We can look at the deals which the Tigers have closed, participated in or not participated in and we scratch our heads and attempt to figure out "Why?" and "What it all means!" In the final analysis we cannot really understand what DD and his office have in mind.

This has not been a quiet off-season. First they allowed Polanco, Lyon and Rodney to walk via free-agency. Then they traded Granderson and E. Jackson in a major, 3 team trade. Now they have signed Jose Valverde, a closer who has been with Houston the last 2 seasons and Arizona the previous 5 seasons.

Although sorcery is not something I would aspire to, I will take a crack at seeing if there is a big picture strategy here that DD is following or if he is just grasping at straws.

Who have they lost since game #163?
  • Polanco has been a huge part of the Tigers' recent success (and by "success" I mean being a contender after the All-Star Break in the past 4 seasons). He is a consistent hitting threat who rarely strikes out and plays some of the best defense in the league. But, he is aging and his range did seem to decline as 2009 wound down. He was a free agent and was going to get big money from someone. Detroit decided to allow someone else to pay for his success in a Tigers' uniform.
  • Rodney had his best year last year, with 37 saves. Again, somebody was going to pay handsomely for his success and Detroit decided he wasn't worth it.
  • Lyon was a similar story. He comes off a career year in 2009 and Detroit decides to let him test the free agent market.
  • Granderson being traded to the Damn Yankees was a surprise. He was an All Star in 2009. He helped the Tigers lead the league in OPS (.791)for center fielders while continuing to patrol the vastness of center in Comerica Park. He is/was Mr. Baseball in Detroit- the "face of the franchise" and a well rounded ball player.
  • Edwin Jackson also had a career year. Until August/ September he was as solid as anyone on the staff. He claimed to learn to "throw strikes" over the last off season and he did that with a vengence- 161 strike outs in 214 innings (6.77 k/9). He was 13-9 for Detroit last year.
Here is my take on all of this.
  • Polanco has earned a big paycheck, probably more than Detroit was going to find reasonable given his age (34). As I mentioned above, his defense appeared to be slipping toward the end of the year (although his UZR was still 11.4 and his range factor was still 4.8 which are excellent numbers. He signed a 3 year deal with the Phillies for $18 million where he will reportedly move from 2B to 3B. Scott Sizemore is said to be ready for the Big Leagues and DD has bet that this is true. Sizemore will not replace Polanco's glove (who could?) but reports are that Sizemore's bat is more dangerous- at least in power. I hated to see Polanco go, but he earned his paycheck and DD seemed to have planned on this happening.
  • Rodney felt that he has earned a big paycheck as a closer somewhere else. Detroit was willing to let him see how that worked out. Well, the best he could do was find a role as a set up man in LAA for 2 years at $11 million. I am very "okay" with letting Rodney go. 2009 was the first year since 2005 he has not suffered some sort of injury and the blood pressure of many Tigers' fans will not have the tests of Rodney's saves (or even worse, his non-save situations) to endure in 2010.
  • Lyon also had a career year with the Tigers in 2009. After a terrible start in April he settled down to become one of the best relievers on the team. By the end of the year I didn't want anybody else in a tight situation. He finished the year with a WHIP of 1.106. I was disappointed to see Lyon go and I would have tried to keep him, but he ended up with a $15 million/ 3 year deal in Houston and I would not have given him that many years.
  • Granderson is the most controversial move Dombrowski made this year (perhaps one of his most controversial ever). Curtis was "My Tiger!" and I love to watch him play. But I truly believe that the writing was on the wall for this long before December. Leyland made comments about Granderson not focusing enough on baseball. Al Kaline made similar comments later in the season. Curtis has still not figured out left handed pitching even though he has been in the Majors since 2004. Leyland tried to compensate by moving him around in the lineup when they faced LH pitching, but nothing could hide the hole Grandy created there. Although he makes spectacular plays in CF, the UZR rating at Fangraphs shows a decline since 2007 for Curtis in the field as well. I think that 2 years from now this trade will appear to be very shrewd on DD's part. Perhaps the New Yankee Stadium will be kinder to Curtis than Comerica Park has been, but as much as I hate to see him go I think that DD unloaded a player who he feels is not going to live up to the reputation he has.
  • Edwin Jackson had an outstanding 2009, at least for the first 2/3 of it. After that he seemed to hit a wall and not be able to recover. I don't know if it was his pitch count (who else could the Tigers turn to in early 2009- the bull pen couldn't be trusted and the bats routinely gave Jackson less run support than anyone else in the league). Regardless of the cause, Jackson pitched 214 innings in 2009, which was 31 more innings than he had pitched in 2008 and 53 more than he had pitched in 2007. I don't know if he will be able to recover enough to be as effective in 2010 as he started out 2009. I believe this is another case of Dombrowski "selling high".
I see two overarching trends in this off seasons' moves by DD: 1) he is very wary of making more expensive, long term commitments to aging players. Polanco was this. We already have Guillen, why add to it? 2) he had some players who, he felt, were looking better than they actually were and the market was good to move them. This is Rodney and Lyon for sure, but also Granderson and Jackson. Only time will tell if he was correct.

I don't believe he is just cutting payroll in all of this. He has told us that he isn't having a "fire sale" and I don't see him or Illich doing that when they missed the post season by 1 out.