The Tigers have taken their lumps for stranding runners and not supporting some of their pitchers of the past few weeks. At almost the same time they have had some dramatic come-from-behind rallies to win games late. They have scored 220 runs in the first 49 games (averaging 4.5). This includes 4 shutouts and 7 games where they have scored 8 or more runs. Baseball-Reference.com lists them as 4th in OBS at .762 and 4th in Batting Average at .269.
But this Tigers’ team is split as far as performance goes: there are the Top 6 batters and the Bottom 3. The Top 6 are: Jackson, Damon, Ordonez, Cabrera, Boesch, and Guillen. These guys are hitting and scoring well. Through Sunday’s game (5/30) the Top 6 have scored 153 of the 220 runs (70%). They also have 144 of the 208 RBI this year (69%). “But wait a minute! Of course they score more runs, they have more opportunities because they get up to bat more often.” Well, although there is truth to that it doesn’t explain it all. The Top 6 have accumulated 1023 Plate Appearances (PA) which is 58%. Of much more importance is what they are doing when they get to the plate, which is to hit.
The BA for the Top 6 is .320. Yes, the average for the Top 6 Batters is .320. Led by Cabrera’s .352 but the worst(?) of them is Damon’s .283. And when Damon isn’t hitting he is taking walks. He leads the team with 14.1% walk rate. The On Base Percentage (OBP) for the Top 6 is .379 and that is pulled down by Boesch’s OBP of a mere .345 (he tends to strike out 20% of the times he goes to the plate). Of course the times Boesch goes to the plate he hits it. His Batting Avg for Balls In Play (BABIP) is .378! He bashes it hard. Boesch’s Slugging % (SLG) is .585 (second only to Cabrera’s on the team). The Top 6’s SLG is .513.
The point I’m making with all of these stats is that the Top 6 Batters are not just scoring most of the runs because they are in the first 6 slots. They are scoring the runs because they are getting on base and hitting for average and power. If the Top 6 were on their own they would be the best hitting team in the American League. The Yankees are the best overall at .811 OPS and the Tigers’ Top 6 is at .892.
This begs the question, “Why is Detroit chasing the Twins to win the weakest division in the American League?” Well, aside from pitching woes there are the Bottom 3 spots in the lineup. The Bottom 3 are: Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. These guys have been a pitcher’s dream so far this season. Combined they are hitting .202. They are not making up for it with walks either (combined 7.56% walk rate) and they are not hitting for power either. The SLG for the Bottom 3 is a weak .331.
I don’t know what the answer to this problem is. The worst starter is Laird (.168 BA with a .243 SLG), but he has been a defensive asset, but he is only throwing out 31% of the base stealers so far this year (9 of 29 attempts). Last year he was throwing base runners out at a 42% clip- which was the best in the League. He replacement is supposed to be Alex Avila but, aside from being a Lefty, Avila is no different. Avila is batting .153 with a .278 SLG. So there really isn’t much to do there. Adam Everett is hitting .189 and SLG .257. Santiago often replaces Everett, but Leyland doesn’t believe Ramon can play full time effectively and his limited numbers are not a huge improvement. Brandon Inge is the best of the Bottom 3 with a .229 BA and SLG of .417 (including 6 HR). Still, Inge strikes out 25% of the time. His fielding is certainly above average. Baseball-Reference.com puts shows him saving 21 runs above the average 3B this year, 2nd best in the AL. I just don’t see replacing Inge with a superior player right now.
The season not quite 1/3 of the way done. Trade deadlines are coming up and I trust that Dombrowski is planning on working something. If Detroit plays well through June they should be buyers and he might find someone. I would start with Shortstop. Again, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Everett’s defense is actually projected to cost Detroit 19 runs more than the average SS this year!
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