Reading tea-leaves...

That is pretty much all that we have to go on right now. We can look at the deals which the Tigers have closed, participated in or not participated in and we scratch our heads and attempt to figure out "Why?" and "What it all means!" In the final analysis we cannot really understand what DD and his office have in mind.

This has not been a quiet off-season. First they allowed Polanco, Lyon and Rodney to walk via free-agency. Then they traded Granderson and E. Jackson in a major, 3 team trade. Now they have signed Jose Valverde, a closer who has been with Houston the last 2 seasons and Arizona the previous 5 seasons.

Although sorcery is not something I would aspire to, I will take a crack at seeing if there is a big picture strategy here that DD is following or if he is just grasping at straws.

Who have they lost since game #163?

• Polanco has been a huge part of the Tigers' recent success (and by "success" I mean being a contender after the All-Star Break in the past 4 seasons). He is a consistent hitting threat who rarely strikes out and plays some of the best defense in the league. But, he is aging and his range did seem to decline as 2009 wound down. He was a free agent and was going to get big money from someone. Detroit decided to allow someone else to pay for his success in a Tigers' uniform.
• Rodney had his best year last year, with 37 saves. Again, somebody was going to pay handsomely for his success and Detroit decided he wasn't worth it.
• Lyon was a similar story. He comes off a career year in 2009 and Detroit decides to let him test the free agent market.
• Granderson being traded to the Damn Yankees was a surprise. He was an All Star in 2009. He helped the Tigers lead the league in OPS (.791)for center fielders while continuing to patrol the vastness of center in Comerica Park. He is/was Mr. Baseball in Detroit- the "face of the franchise" and a well rounded ball player.
  
• Edwin Jackson also had a career year. Until August/ September he was as solid as anyone on the staff. He claimed to learn to "throw strikes" over the last off season and he did that with a vengence- 161 strike outs in 214 innings (6.77 k/9). He was 13-9 for Detroit last year.

Here is my take on all of this.

• Polanco has earned a big paycheck, probably more than Detroit was going to find reasonable given his age (34). As I mentioned above, his defense appeared to be slipping toward the end of the year (although his UZR was still 11.4 and his range factor was still 4.8 which are excellent numbers. He signed a 3 year deal with the Phillies for $18 million where he will reportedly move from 2B to 3B. Scott Sizemore is said to be ready for the Big Leagues and DD has bet that this is true. Sizemore will not replace Polanco's glove (who could?) but reports are that Sizemore's bat is more dangerous- at least in power. I hated to see Polanco go, but he earned his paycheck and DD seemed to have planned on this happening.
• Rodney felt that he has earned a big paycheck as a closer somewhere else. Detroit was willing to let him see how that worked out. Well, the best he could do was find a role as a set up man in LAA for 2 years at $11 million. I am very "okay" with letting Rodney go. 2009 was the first year since 2005 he has not suffered some sort of injury and the blood pressure of many Tigers' fans will not have the tests of Rodney's saves (or even worse, his non-save situations) to endure in 2010.
  
• Lyon also had a career year with the Tigers in 2009. After a terrible start in April he settled down to become one of the best relievers on the team. By the end of the year I didn't want anybody else in a tight situation. He finished the year with a WHIP of 1.106. I was disappointed to see Lyon go and I would have tried to keep him, but he ended up with a $15 million/ 3 year deal in Houston and I would not have given him that many years.
• Granderson is the most controversial move Dombrowski made this year (perhaps one of his most controversial ever). Curtis was "My Tiger!" and I love to watch him play. But I truly believe that the writing was on the wall for this long before December. Leyland made comments about Granderson not focusing enough on baseball. Al Kaline made similar comments later in the season. Curtis has still not figured out left handed pitching even though he has been in the Majors since 2004. Leyland tried to compensate by moving him around in the lineup when they faced LH pitching, but nothing could hide the hole Grandy created there. Although he makes spectacular plays in CF, the UZR rating at Fangraphs shows a decline since 2007 for Curtis in the field as well. I think that 2 years from now this trade will appear to be very shrewd on DD's part. Perhaps the New Yankee Stadium will be kinder to Curtis than Comerica Park has been, but as much as I hate to see him go I think that DD unloaded a player who he feels is not going to live up to the reputation he has.
• Edwin Jackson had an outstanding 2009, at least for the first 2/3 of it. After that he seemed to hit a wall and not be able to recover. I don't know if it was his pitch count (who else could the Tigers turn to in early 2009- the bull pen couldn't be trusted and the bats routinely gave Jackson less run support than anyone else in the league). Regardless of the cause, Jackson pitched 214 innings in 2009, which was 31 more innings than he had pitched in 2008 and 53 more than he had pitched in 2007. I don't know if he will be able to recover enough to be as effective in 2010 as he started out 2009. I believe this is another case of Dombrowski "selling high".

I see two overarching trends in this off seasons' moves by DD: 1) he is very wary of making more expensive, long term commitments to aging players. Polanco was this. We already have Guillen, why add to it? 2) he had some players who, he felt, were looking better than they actually were and the market was good to move them. This is Rodney and Lyon for sure, but also Granderson and Jackson. Only time will tell if he was correct.

I don't believe he is just cutting payroll in all of this. He has told us that he isn't having a "fire sale" and I don't see him or Illich doing that when they missed the post season by 1 out.

2009 Recap on MLBN...

Here is a link to MLB Network's recap of the Tigers 2009 season.

It's hard to recap all of the joy and heartache in 3:50 seconds but they do a decent enough job of it. They key in on the successes of the starting rotation and spend some time on the race against the Twins.

As a bonus they pay special attention to Granderson's catch (1:11 mark) and Porcello's take down of Youkilis (1:40).

Jim Leyland to fix baseball...sort of

Jim Leyland has been asked to be part of a very select committee that has been put together by Bud Selig to "analyze ways to improve" baseball.

He will join 3 other managers: Tony La Russa, Joe Torre and Mike Scioscia along with other greats such as Frank Robinson a number of GM's, owners and even George Will (!). This is a veritable who's who of the baseball world.

So what could such an august body hope to accomplish? Well there are a number of things that many people would like to see to "improve" the National Pastime.

Probably the most often heard complaint is that it is too slow. It is certainly not an exaggeration to say that most Tigers' games are around 3 hours long. I'm sure that this will be a major aspect of the committee's agenda. I'll be curious to hear about how they might tackle this. Thomas Boswell at the Washington Post has a few ideas:

-- I've "timed" every facet of the game. Okay, I'm a nut. But I'm right. The average "mound visit" wastes 60 to 70 seconds. Ban 'em all. Middle-aged guys stay in the dugout. Mike up the pitcher and a coach. Talk all you want. Use a crackberry. But no visits.

-- Putting a clock on mid-inning pitching changes is a must. If it only takes 150 seconds between innings, there's no excuse why "waving for the left-hander" should burn more than three minutes.

-- Sorry about "God Bless America" at the seventh-inning stretch, but it needs to go. It was a fine idea after 9/11. But it has served its purpose. And it wastes two minutes.

-- Yes, of course, wave the hitter to first on an intentional walk.

-- A huge time saver, since every relief pitching change eats about four minutes, would be curtailing the plague of relief specialists who now face only one hitter. This isn't "core" to baseball. It evolved. Then metastasized. Change the rules. A relief pitcher must face two hitters. The effect: more offense, and better pace of play, in late innings.

I don't agree with all of these (ie miking up the pitcher), but shortening the time for relievers to start pitching and eliminating God Bless America are fine with me. Do you remember Posada walking to the mound after every pitch during the last World Series? That was an exception, but it certainly slowed the game down.

With all of the games now televised that also slows down the game. We have to watch the ads because they support the TV. Baseball on TV can't survive without it and baseball without TV can't survive it's current cost structures, so that is a tricky problem.

Of course one of the beautiful things about baseball is that time is not relevant. You have to get 3 outs per inning. Sometimes that takes 5 minutes and sometimes it takes 30 minutes. You can't run down the clock, you have to pitch the ball and do your best. I would hate to see that disappear.

It thinks that the group of men that Selig has brought together will be able to improve the game and I am glad that Jim Leyland is one of the ones chosen for this task.

You keep some, you let some go...

The Tigers announced that they have signed Ramon Santiago to a 2 year deal. This keeps some valuable versatility in the infield as well as some short term power at the plate. There has been debate over the years as to why Santiago doesn't get more playing time. When he plays he has a decent bat:

In 183 games with the Tigers since the start of the 2007 season, the switch-hitting Santiago has hit .274 with 17 doubles, five triples, 11 homers and 60 RBIs. (MLB).

His defense is solid too. His Ultimate Zone Rating has averaged 1.9 since he came back from Seattle until this past year when he dropped down to -2.5.

Plus he is from the Dominican Republic, and that is always a bonus with me!

On the "letting them go" side of the ledger, Ian at Bless You Boys reports that The Freddy Dolsi Era is Over. Dolsi pitched in 42 games in 2008 for the Tigers after working his way back up the minor league ladder. He gave up 50 hits in 47 2/3 innings that year along with 28 walks, giving him a WHIP of 1.64 and an ERA of 3.97. In 2009 he spent most of his time with Toledo and pitched only 10 2/3 innings for the Big Club. In those scant 10+ innings he 13 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 1.59 and an ERA of 1.69. Dolsi was DFA'd to clear up roster space and the Dirty Sox picked him up.

Who have been the best defenders in the 00's?

I came across this article while looking over Baseball Musings the other day. The people at "The Book" did a study of defense over the last decade and put together the top 5 defenders at each position. Would you like to know which (ex)-Tigers made the list?

Placido Polanco was the 3rd highest rated of 2nd Basemen in the MLB (based on runs saved). He prevented an average of 10 runs per 150 games over the last 10 years. We certainly saw that in Detroit where he seemed to grab anything near him as well as helping to turn some sweet double plays. I guess I'm happy that he spent much of that time wearing the Old English D.

Adam Everett comes in at the TOP of the list for Short Stops with an average of 18 runs prevented for every 150 games played. He isn't as flashy as Inge is at 3rd but don't let that take away from what he has achieved. In 2010 he will have to carry more of it on his own as Detroit breaks in a new 2nd Baseman, but I feel very comfortable with Inge at 3rd and Everett at Short. Miguel Cabrerra continues to improve with his glove at 1st so defense on the infield should not be a major issue.

Back up and running...

It has been quite a while since I could post. My laptop died (it was over 6 years old, so it had a very good run). But that's history- I have another laptop to use now so it's time to jump in again.

There has been so much that happened, especially at the Winter Meetings last week! I'll probably put more up on this later, but my household is grieving right now- Placido Polanco was my daughter's favorite Tiger and Curtis Granderson was mine. Now both of them are gone (although they should enjoy playing for top tier teams).

So many bloggers have given input to "The Trade of 2009" that I don't really have anything to add (especially a week later). See here, here, here and here. Suffice it to say that Dombrowski had better be RIGHT on this one.

For what it's worth I still see two large holes for the Tigers (and no, a closer isn't one of them). I still think they need a solid bat in Left Field and another one at DH. Jason Bay is still available (hint). Johnny Damon is still out there too.

That's all for now, but it is good to be back!

Meet your new 1B/Outfield/Running Coach...

The Tigers announced that Tom Brookens (yes, that Tom Brookens) will replace Andy Van Slyke on Jim Leyland's coaching staff.

Here are the details...

Detroit News

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