and then there's that

I was home sick today.  I pretty much slept the day away, what a fantastic way to appreciate the first day near 70 degrees this year.  Ah well, there will be more.

While I was sleeping the Tigers were not, at least not all the way through the game.  It was the Twins that came to Joker Marchant Stadium.  I think this was the first time they have played each other this year and think that we will see many games like this between these two clubs this season.  Reading the lines it seems that Brad Penny had a decent day (5 IP with 2 BB and 2 Ks with 3 ER on 3 hits).  Furbush pitched 2 innings and struck out 4 but walked 3 (with 1 hit).  Since I was sleeping I have no idea how wild he was, but that's a little scary to me.  But no harm done (because it's spring and because no one scored).  Benoit continued to be lights out (0.00 ERA so far) and Perry picked up the win while allowing only a hit.  Offensively Inge had a solid day (3 for 4).  Cabrerra hit a double and a HR.  Raburn hit another HR while Maggs and Worth each had doubles.  All together it was enough to win 4-3.

Kurt has his take on Cabrerra's success so far this spring.  The bottom line is... a good spring = a good season in Cabrerra's world. Let's all hope that this is true!

Jason Beck shows how some pitchers make lemonade out of the lemons others are throwing.

MLive has an article on a different side of Cabrerra (no, not the drinking side).  This shows how he is trying to improve as a base runner.  That would be a good thing to see in 2011.  We've seen how he has improved defensively as he became accustomed to 1B.  Stretching singles to doubles or going 1st to 3rd is a good thing, it challenges the fielders and forces them to possibly make mistakes.

Both Lynn Henning and Matt Sussman feel that winning 90+ games will be tough for any team in the AL Central.  This is because it is a balanced and competitive division (at least so far as Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago go).

Sussman links to another list, this time of defunct logos.  Detroit has 2 on the list, the circular one that I remember from my childhood and the "tiger attacking through the D" that is very cool (and I'm painting on a wall in my basement.)

Other happenings today?  Hmmm, let's see?  Did anything of consequence happen on March 17, 2011?  Well, let's take a look.

Japan avoided nuclear catastrophe for another day.  They are still trying to pour water onto radioactive fuel in a desperate attempt to contain the radiation until the normal cooling process can be restarted.  The BBC is reporting that engineers have been able to lay the needed electrical cable for that process.  It strikes me that not enough hero worship has been directed at the people who are working this problem.  If you consider that while everyone else is being told to leave the area, these men and women are putting on plastic suits and going into the danger zone.  I remember the first responders of 9/11 and this reminds me of the same courage and resoluteness.  When you're one of the 50 people who stay in the plant, well you know that you probably aren't going to play with your grandchildren- don't you.  Yet, they go in anyway and do what they can.  Finest hour, indeed.

Oh, another little thing happened a little while ago.  The UN decided that they had had just about enough of Muammar Gaddafi.  Well, France, Britain, Lebanon and the US did.  China, Germany and Russia abstained.  I just don't know folks.  Maybe I'm a cold hearted bastard, but every news report I have heard describes the rebels in the same way.  That description is of kids playing army.  This is not Egypt or Tunisia.  I wouldn't even say that the rebels are "pro-democracy".  They are anti-Gaddafi, and who knows what that means?  The bottom line is that the rebels are getting their butts kicked very systematically by the Government Army.  Just exactly what can UN/ NATO air power do to change that?  The UN resolution allows "all necessary measures" except ground occupation.  France is chomping at the bit to strike.  I don't understand this at all.  Here are my questions right now:

• Who are we helping?  By that I mean, what are their motives?  How do they help the US to improve?
• What is the goal?  In other words, "Why?"  Is this about humanitarian crisis (I doubt it)?  Is it oil?  Is it to prevent a flood of immigrants going to Europe?  
• What are the measures to be taken?  Do we use cruise missiles to destroy targets from afar?  Do we send aircraft over Libya?  Do we attack Government ground troops?  Do we send in our own troops to bolster the rebel fighters? 
• Who wins?  Just who comes out ahead if the UN/NATO succeed in stopping the fighting?  Who gives peace keepers?  Who splits up the oil revenue?  How do you deal with Gaddafi (if he survives) once the shooting stops?

This isn't an adult stopping a fight between to boys on the playground.  You can't just say to yourself, "The fight's over I can go about my life again."  No, there are repercussions and responsibilities once you jump in. Are we prepared to deal with those?  Hmmm.

The Tiger play Boston on Friday (at 1:05).  Baseball reflects life, but it's easier to understand.

Passing thoughts from the day

Here is quick round up of stuff from March 16

Samara listened to a game and enjoyed Jim and Dan's commentary.  Money quote: “Nothing the trainer can do except come out and offer moral support.” After Max St. Pierre got hit in the replicators.

This is from a couple of days ago, but is worth going back to.  Kurt at Bless You Boys interviews Dan Dickerson (radio voice of the Tigers).  Part 1 is here.  Hopefully part 2 will be posted soon!

In moves that surprised no one.  Beck reported that Guillen and Zumaya will be on the DL when the Tigers head north.

I miss Johnny Damon.  I loved seeing him in the Old English D and I thought we would see him in Left for 2011.  Apparently he thought we would too.  MLBTradeRumors.com linked to a Twitter feed where Damon says he thought being back in Detroit was a "slam dunk".  I wish it were true.

Dave Pinto at BaseballMusings.com has done his prognostications about how often the Tigers will score.  He sees quite a few runs (5.10 runs per game).  I like that number and I hope that he is right.

I am sure that this was keeping you up at night, so I'll help put the controversy to rest.  The Tigers have the the 5th best hats in the MLB.  MLive linked to the list today.  Suck it Justin Bieber!  Take your purple Yankees hat and go back to the dugout.  BTW, the Indians have the worst hats.

Off of baseball...

Netflix has decided to run with the big dogs!  They are going to publish their own content, a TV show called House of Cards.  Last fall we cut off the satellite and have gone strictly with Netflix and Hulu for mind-numbing entertainment.  It has been no problem for anyone!  I'm excited to see Netflix survive and thrive.

Can you compare an airplane to a continent?  Dominic Tierney does just that as he tries to bring the costs of the F35 jet fighter into perspective.  A thought provoking article.

Finally, a Quote for the Day from Rand Paul.  I'm not a big fan of his, but truth is truth no matter where you see it.

"Would Republicans have given Obama and his party a free pass in carrying out the exact same agenda as Bush? It's hard to imagine this being the case, given the grief Bill Clinton got from Republicans, even though his big government agenda was less ambitious than Bush's. Yet, the last Republican president got very little criticism from his own party for most of his tenure. For conservatives, there was no excuse for this,"

Sweet dreams!

Relaunch- 2011 edition

It has been a long time. Much has happened, the world continues to turn. I think about this blog often. I work on it much less often. The world goes on anyway. As I muse about Section 148 I keep coming back to the same issue- I can't keep up with just Tigers' baseball as much as I should to do a blog justice. As much as I love the Tigers, my brain just isn't wired that way. To paraphrase one of my favorite movie lines- "(My) focus needs more focus."

So, rather than go against my own nature, I'm going to go with the flow and readjust my focus.  Well, broaden it actually.  I will hit on the things that strike my fancy, my brain or my bowels- it will depend on the day and the events of the day.  You won't see rants here (at least not in my opinion), that's not my style.  You may see some commentary, both mine and stuff I see as I bounce around the web.  You may see some funny stuff (I enjoy the weirder side of life).  You may see things that I believe are touching, poignant or worth pondering.  For certain you will find things that I have learned and thought to be revealing/ interesting.

You will continue to see Tigers' stuff.  I may comment about the day's game or something.  I will certainly link to posts from the Tigers and baseball blogs that I read regularly.  Please follow the links to those sites, I get a great deal of pleasure from them and I want others to also.

This is the relaunch post.  Opening Day is only two weeks away.  (I was amazed to find out that some people think of November 15 as "Opening Day" recently.  It just goes to show how different people can be.)  A huge earthquake and tsunami have recently struck Japan and they are desperately trying to prevent a nuclear disaster as a result.  Tomorrow is St. Patrick's Day (so my daughter and I are off to buy a green scarf).


Slainte!

The Tigers’ Batting Wonders and Woes…

The Tigers have taken their lumps for stranding runners and not supporting some of their pitchers of the past few weeks. At almost the same time they have had some dramatic come-from-behind rallies to win games late. They have scored 220 runs in the first 49 games (averaging 4.5). This includes 4 shutouts and 7 games where they have scored 8 or more runs. Baseball-Reference.com lists them as 4th in OBS at .762 and 4th in Batting Average at .269.

But this Tigers’ team is split as far as performance goes: there are the Top 6 batters and the Bottom 3. The Top 6 are: Jackson, Damon, Ordonez, Cabrera, Boesch, and Guillen. These guys are hitting and scoring well. Through Sunday’s game (5/30) the Top 6 have scored 153 of the 220 runs (70%). They also have 144 of the 208 RBI this year (69%). “But wait a minute! Of course they score more runs, they have more opportunities because they get up to bat more often.” Well, although there is truth to that it doesn’t explain it all. The Top 6 have accumulated 1023 Plate Appearances (PA) which is 58%. Of much more importance is what they are doing when they get to the plate, which is to hit.

The BA for the Top 6 is .320. Yes, the average for the Top 6 Batters is .320. Led by Cabrera’s .352 but the worst(?) of them is Damon’s .283. And when Damon isn’t hitting he is taking walks. He leads the team with 14.1% walk rate. The On Base Percentage (OBP) for the Top 6 is .379 and that is pulled down by Boesch’s OBP of a mere .345 (he tends to strike out 20% of the times he goes to the plate). Of course the times Boesch goes to the plate he hits it. His Batting Avg for Balls In Play (BABIP) is .378! He bashes it hard. Boesch’s Slugging % (SLG) is .585 (second only to Cabrera’s on the team). The Top 6’s SLG is .513.

The point I’m making with all of these stats is that the Top 6 Batters are not just scoring most of the runs because they are in the first 6 slots. They are scoring the runs because they are getting on base and hitting for average and power. If the Top 6 were on their own they would be the best hitting team in the American League. The Yankees are the best overall at .811 OPS and the Tigers’ Top 6 is at .892.

This begs the question, “Why is Detroit chasing the Twins to win the weakest division in the American League?” Well, aside from pitching woes there are the Bottom 3 spots in the lineup. The Bottom 3 are: Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. These guys have been a pitcher’s dream so far this season. Combined they are hitting .202. They are not making up for it with walks either (combined 7.56% walk rate) and they are not hitting for power either. The SLG for the Bottom 3 is a weak .331.

I don’t know what the answer to this problem is. The worst starter is Laird (.168 BA with a .243 SLG), but he has been a defensive asset, but he is only throwing out 31% of the base stealers so far this year (9 of 29 attempts). Last year he was throwing base runners out at a 42% clip- which was the best in the League. He replacement is supposed to be Alex Avila but, aside from being a Lefty, Avila is no different. Avila is batting .153 with a .278 SLG. So there really isn’t much to do there. Adam Everett is hitting .189 and SLG .257. Santiago often replaces Everett, but Leyland doesn’t believe Ramon can play full time effectively and his limited numbers are not a huge improvement. Brandon Inge is the best of the Bottom 3 with a .229 BA and SLG of .417 (including 6 HR). Still, Inge strikes out 25% of the time. His fielding is certainly above average. Baseball-Reference.com puts shows him saving 21 runs above the average 3B this year, 2nd best in the AL. I just don’t see replacing Inge with a superior player right now.

The season not quite 1/3 of the way done. Trade deadlines are coming up and I trust that Dombrowski is planning on working something. If Detroit plays well through June they should be buyers and he might find someone. I would start with Shortstop. Again, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Everett’s defense is actually projected to cost Detroit 19 runs more than the average SS this year!

Not a good week...

This past week has not been a good one for the Tigers. They went 1-4 (with 2 off days). Well, actually they seemed to have more than 2 “off” days, but there were 2 days they weren’t scheduled.

They wrapped up their last West Coast road trip against the Mariners before coming home to start a 4 game series against the A’s.

For one of those reasons that make no sense the Tigers cannot seem to beat the Mariners. The Mariners have not been a good team in 2010. They have good pitching and don’t allow that many runs (189 through the Tigers’ series or 4.1 per game) but they score even fewer (163 or 3.5 per game). With Verlander and Bonderman pitching for Detroit you might think that things look pretty good for a short series win. Yet the Mariners were able to score 5 runs in each game while the Tigers scored only 3 and then 4. Bondo actually pitched a great game, but Ryan Perry didn’t, giving up 5 hits and 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning to turn an apparent 4-1 win into a definite 4-5 loss. In fact, this was not a good week for Ryan Perry at all, but we’ll get to that later. So the Tigers again gave the Mariners a reason to feel good about themselves. So far the Tigers are 1-4 against Seattle this year, providing the Mariners with almost 20% of their wins for the year.

After losing to Seattle (and presumably stocking up on coffee) the Tigers headed home to face the A’s. Now the A’s are a decent team. They are contending in the West and have some good players. The Tigers had beaten them in a short series last week. Now they had a 4 game series here in Detroit. The Tigers are very good, strong at home (14-6 starting the series). Well, things didn’t work out exactly as hoped for. Willis pitched 5 1/3 innings of very interesting baseball, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and one walk. The Bullpen took over and, for the second time this week Perry could not get it done, allowing 2 runs on a hit and a walk (Ni allowing at least one of the runs to score). Even with newly-minted father Miguel Cabrara hitting 3 home runs the Tigers couldn’t get Willis the win. The next night (Friday) the Tigers bats simply didn’t show up (5 hits and 0 runs). Porcello pitched a pretty good game (2 earned runs in 6 1/3 on 7 hits and 2 walks). The Pen allowed 4 runs in another weak showing, but with 0 runs on the Tigers’ side of the scoreboard it didn’t really matter much.

This raises a question for me about the pitchers- can we have good showings from both the Rotation and the Bullpen in the same week? This week the Rotation had one weak outing (Verlander on Tuesday) but other than that Bonderman, Willis, Porcello and Scherzer each pitched well with 3 or fewer runs allowed. This is the dominant rotation that we have been begging for all year! Here it is! The Rotation’s ERA for the week was 2.84! Their WHIP was 1.17. This stuff can win some ball games! Before the week started the Tigers’ Bullpen was lights-out. Their ERA was 2.32 and their WHIP was 1.23. It has climbed to 2.85 and 1.27. Add the 2 losses (both, unfortunately, assigned to Perry but he had some help in giving them away) and we see a bad week. I’m hoping that this was simply that- a bad week- and not some horrible Greek-economy-type slide toward failure. I say this because I’m not sure where the bailout might come from.

Related to dominance of the Rotation- Dontrelle Willis was Designated for Assignment last night to make room for Max Scherzer. Dontrelle seems to be the happiest (and luckiest) pitcher in baseball but his on again- off again relationship with the strike zone had finally become too much for Dombrowski. With Scherzer having figured out his issues down in Toledo the Tigers needed to make some room on the roster. Galarraga had pitched well enough to stay, so Willis was DFA’d. I must say that I admire what the Tigers have done for Willis. Something happened inside his head and he lost his game. Unfortunately this happed right after Dombrowski signed him to a 3 year worth $29 million. The Tigers gave him every opportunity to turn it around (for both their own interest and his), but ultimately they decided that they could do better.

The bats remain a story of split personality. The top 5 are the best in baseball (in my opinion). The bottom 4 have been terrible. Overall the OPS is .755 for the last 13 games, but the squandering by the bottom has been epic. Inge is hitting .215 and that is the best of the group. Everett is .189 and Laird/ Avila is .154 It is a fair question as to how long these guys can hit like that and stay on the lineup card. I don’t know the answers to this problem, but there has to be a SS or Catcher out there who can hit better than what we have with enough defense to make the outs. If something doesn’t happen with these guys soon then Willis may have only been the first to be shown the door.

So, as Memorial Day starts off the summer season here in Michigan we have a team that is going through some changes and challenges. Their Bullpen slipped but their Rotation stepped up. The bats have been slumbering but woke up in a big way today to support Scherzer. The team is 26-23 and sits 3 games behind the Twins. They are certainly in the race. This upcoming week they finish the 4th game with the A’s and then host the Indians for 3 before going to KC for 3. These are not good teams, these are teams that Detroit should dominate. This should be a good week to be a Tigers’ fan.
Go Tigers!

40 Games into it...

Well, due to a couple of rainouts we are technically at 39 games, but I’ll buck tradition on this point. So Sparky Anderson is famously quoted as saying that you can’t tell how good or bad a baseball team is until they have played 40 games. Is that the magic number? Can’t you tell at 20 or should you wait until 60? Well, I have enough respect of sample size to resist the urge at 20 and I’m too impatient to wait until 60. Plus, this is Sparky Anderson we’re listening too here! C’mon, he led teams to championships in both leagues and is in the Hall of Fame! We are really students to his teaching here.

The Tigers stand at 22 wins and 17 losses overall. They are competitive in every sense of the word so far- they have beaten the Angels, Yankees, Twins and Red Sox in series match ups this season. They have also lost series I thought they should win (KC and Seattle in April). They are very good at Comerica Park (14-6). If they can keep that up for the season there is a lot of promise there. On the road they have held their own (8-11) but have struggled. Part of that may be due to the types of road trips they have had (11 games out west and on little rest). But Detroit typically plays much better at home than on the road. Since 2007 they are 136-107 (.560) at home and 112- 132 (.459) on the road.

The stat where the Tigers are most even with their competition is in runs scored. Detroit has scored 178 runs. Opponents have scored 178 runs! That averages out to 4.6 per game for each team. Most of the experts claimed that this would be a .500 team and the scoring bears this out with 25% of the season completed. Looking deeper I see some interesting things: The Tigers are out hitting their opponents. OPS for Detroit is .764 while opponents are around .722 The most significant differential here is in the “slugging %” aspect of OPS. Detroit is slugging at a rate of .415 while opponents are slugging at only .378. The Tigers average 18.5 total bases per game while allowing only 16.8. Yes, the Tigers have given their fans far too many reasons to complain of “squandering” runners (averaging 15.6 left on base per game vs. 14.6 for their opponents) but they do get men on base and score enough runs to win ball games.

It seems to be the run prevention side of the equation that needs the most help. The Team ERA is 4.22 and most of that is due to an under performing starting rotation. The Starters are 11-12 so far this year and have an ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.51. No one has really had a good year (although Verlander has started to show signs of pulling out of his funk). Max Scherzer, who came from Arizona, has recently been sent down to Toledo to work on things after dumping a 7.29 ERA on the mound (our old friend Galarraga has taken his place in the rotation). The Bullpen has more than held its own so far, with an ERA of only 2.49 and a WHIP of only 1.26. Zumaya has helped that by allowing only 4 walks in 24 innings so far. The ‘Pen, as a whole, has allowed only 6 homeruns in 131 2/3 innings also.

Adding to the pitchers’ woes are defensive miscues that prolong innings and add base runners. The Tigers average .8 errors per game. Their opponents only give them .5 per game. The Tigers rank dead last in Fielding % for the American League (.977) and have had 34 errors charged to them. Ryan Raburn being sent to Toledo should improve on that, but this is an area where they should be strong. Detroit seems to be either an excellent defensive team or the Bad News Bears from year to year and it hurts their chances of winning the division.

So where is this team after 40 games? As we saw above, they are competitive. They have proven that they can beat the teams that you would expect to face in October. They have proven that they can score runs. They have proven that their Bullpen can hold leads or stop the bleeding. Yet they have also shown that their starting rotation is not very strong. Their defenders are not very strong either. I believe that if either of those last two factors improves this will be a contender right down to the wire and will have a strong chance of winning the AL Central title.

The 2nd Inning...

As I was originally shown by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales, the 162 games in a standard baseball season can be broken down into 9 innings of 18 games each. The Tigers have completed 36 games, which equal 2 innings of play. Let’s look at how they have done.

They are in 2nd place, 2 ½ games behind the Twins in the AL Central. The Tigers’ record is 20-16.

Their overall batting average for the 2nd inning is .265. Their OBP = .333. Their SLG = .422 (.265/.333/.422) Overall this shows some improvement over the 1st inning (.278/ .377/.410). They scored 80 runs in the 2nd inning. They also allowed 80 runs in the inning. Overall this team has allowed almost as many runs as it has scored all year.

The pitching for the 2nd Inning has improved over the 1st. The starting rotation pitched 99 1/3 innings and allowed 57 earned runs for an ERA of 5.16. This allowed them to win 6 and lose 7 during this inning. Their WHIP improved to 1.47 also.
The bullpen continues to dominate. They pitched 65 1/3 innings and allowed 20 earned runs (2.76 ERA). They walked only 31 and gave up only 2 homeruns during that time. There is little question that the bullpen is a significant reason for why the Tigers have won as many games as they have.

So far the Tigers are outperforming expectations. By scoring 164 runs and allowing 165 they should have a record of 18 - 18. But they have a record that is 2 games better than that (20 – 16) and are right in the fight for the pennant. Part of this is a result of how they lose: they have lost 3 games where the opposing team has scored 10+ runs and none of those games were close. They have also lost 0-8, which contributes to the skewing of the numbers toward mediocrity. Part of it is also that they are developing a reputation for coming from behind to win late in the game- this usually means a close final score that doesn’t show the heart of the team in a final score.

This inning the Tigers beat Minnesota, New York and LA. They also lost to Minnesota in a sweep at Target field (their worst series so far). This team can compete with the best teams in the AL. They must figure out the Twins in Minnesota, but they are certainly capable of winning against any team on the schedule.

The bottom line is that this is a very fun team to watch and will be long into the fall.